CEE MARKETS-Weak GDP data weighs on forint, US election in focus

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/31/24 06:14 AM EDT
       By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk
       WARSAW, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint was down
on Thursday, hit by weak GDP data published the day before,
while other central European currencies were stable ahead of the
Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.
    Hungary's forint was 0.4% weaker on the day at
409.1500 per euro at 0931 GMT.
    "The forint weakened further after the weak GDP data, with
its falls accelerating yesterday and the forint significantly
decoupling from other currencies in the region," brokerage
Equilor said in a note.
    "The next stronger resistance comes around 414 while the
level of 405 constitutes a support for the currency."
    The dollar held steady on Thursday ahead of the U.S.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for
September to be published later in the day and the closely
watched non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
    However, it is headed for its biggest monthly gain since
April 2022 in October thanks to solid data which reduced
expectations for a 50-basis point interest rate cut from the
Fed.
    A stronger dollar usually weights on central European
currencies.
    The Nov. 5 U.S. election has entered its final stretch, with
opinion polls too close to call a winner. Investors have been
putting on trades betting Republican candidate Donald Trump
could be president again, although he is still neck and neck
with Vice President Kamala Harris in several polls.
    The zloty was unchanged at 4.3535 per euro, with
Bank Millennium analysts saying they don't expect much
volatility on Thursday ahead of a national holiday on Friday.
    Polish CPI stood at 5.0% in October, flash data showed, in
line with expectations.
    Bank Millennium said the publication of debt supply for
November later in the day could influence bond yields, with
10-year papers remaining at around 6.0% after the government
announced amendments to this year's budget, raising the deficit
to 240.3 billion zlotys ($59.95 billion) from the previously
planned 184 billion.
    The Czech crown was 0.1% weaker at 25.4000 per euro.

                  CEE       SNAPSHO   AT
                  MARKETS   T        1031 CET
                            CURRENC
                            IES
                            Latest   Previous  Daily    Change
                            trade    close     change   in 2024
 EURCZK=  Czech   EURHUF=  Hungar  0
          forint
 EURPLN=  Polish  EURRON=  Romani  EURRSD=  Serbia  0
          dinar
          Note:   calculat                     1800
          daily   ed from                      CET
          change

                            Latest   Previous  Daily    Change
                                     close     change   in 2024
 .PX      Prague            1648.55  1640.360   +0.50%    +16.59%
                                            0
 .BUX     Budape            74065.5  73883.03   +0.25%    +22.18%
          st                      9
 .WIG20   Warsaw            2206.65   2230.54   -1.07%     -5.82%
 .BETI    Buchar            17420.4  17461.50   -0.24%    +13.33%
          est                     0

                                               Spread   Daily
                                               vs Bund  change in
          Czech                                         spread
          Republ
          ic
 CZ2YT=R          s
 CZ5YT=R          s
 CZ10YT=          s
          r
          Poland
 PL2YT=R          s
 PL5YT=R          s
 PL10YT=          s
          r

                  FORWARD RATE
                  AGREEMENTS
                            3x6      6x9       9x12     3M
                                                        interbank
          Czech                3.84      3.58     3.42       4.08
          Rep     Hungar               6.57      6.52     6.42       6.45
          y
          Poland               5.74      5.35     5.03       5.85

          Note:   are for ask
          FRA     prices
          quotes
          ********************************************
          ******************

 ($1 = 4.0085 zlotys)

 (Additional reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest; Editing by
Shounak Dasgupta)



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