MORNING BID ASIA-China 'bazooka' fizzles, dollar on the march

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 10/29/24 05:45 PM EDT

By Jamie McGeever

Oct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Markets in Asia appear to lack clear direction at the open on Wednesday, with investors still digesting the news of a potential 10 trillion yuan fiscal boost from China, while weighing the impact of a firm U.S. dollar and buoyant Treasury yields.

Political paralysis in Japan following Sunday's inconclusive general election still hangs over markets there, although stocks could benefit from the weak yen and view that political gridlock clips the wings of the Bank of Japan's more hawkish officials.

The main events in the Asia and Pacific region's economic calendar on Wednesday include Australian inflation and a monetary policy forum held by the Bank of Thailand, while the BOJ begins its two-day policy meeting.

The flow of Asian company earnings picks up pace, with Mitsubishi and Hitachi in Japan, and China's BYD, Standard Chartered and ICBC among the big names reporting on Wednesday.

If there is a catalyst for early Asian trading on Wednesday it could come from U.S. corporate news on Tuesday, namely Alphabet's third-quarter results after the closing bell, which sent its shares up as much as 5% in after-hours trade.

The Nasdaq hit a record high on Tuesday, and megacaps Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon report later this week too.

Investors in Asia will still be weighing up the exclusive Reuters report on Tuesday that China is considering approving the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the coming years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package that would be further bolstered if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election.

The news failed to prevent Chinese stocks from falling 1% on Tuesday, however, as weakness in the energy and property sectors dragged the market lower.

Perhaps the yuan's latest slip to a two-month low could put a temporary floor under stocks. Many analysts believe China needs a weaker exchange rate to boost exports and growth, and steer the economy away from the clutches of deflation. But policymakers must balance that against the possibility that the weaker currency triggers waves of capital flight out of China.

However, any positive sentiment may be tempered by another rise in U.S. bond yields and the dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.30% for the first time since July, while the dollar climbed to a three-month high on an index basis.

The dollar is on course for its biggest monthly rise in two and a half years, and second biggest in over a decade. Many investors will be feeling the pain - a month ago hedge funds' short dollar position was worth $14.5 billion, according to U.S. futures market data, and that has now been flipped to a net long position worth almost $10 billion.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

- Australia inflation (September, Q3)

- Bank of Thailand monetary policy forum

- Japan, China corporate earnings

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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