CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar extends weekly losing streak on BoC rate cut

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/25/24 03:34 PM EDT

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Canadian dollar falls 0.2% against the greenback

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For the week, the currency loses 0.6%

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Retail sales increase 0.4% in August

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10-year yield rises nearly 2 basis points

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened to near 12-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, pressured by the Bank of Canada's most recent interest rate cut and an uncertain outlook for the economy ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.

The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3880 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.05 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since Aug. 5 at 1.3893.

For the week, the currency was down 0.6%, its fourth straight weekly decline, marking the longest such streak since January.

On Wednesday, the BoC reduced its benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 3.75% to support the economy, the first cut of that size in 15 years outside of the pandemic era.

"We're weaker on the week not surprisingly given the Bank of Canada's 50-basis-point rate cut," said Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates & macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Canada's new immigration reduction targets announced this week will likely have a bigger impact on the BoC's growth forecast than on the inflation trajectory, Governor Tiff Macklem said.

"Part of what's gone on is you have a U.S. election coming up and there are risks to Canada and the Canadian dollar as part of the U.S. election. Until those risks are cleared there is a meaningful headwind for Canada," said Reitzes.

Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs on imported goods. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States.

Domestic data showed that retail sales rose by 0.4% in August from July, slightly less than expected, while a preliminary estimate showed sales up 0.4% in September.

Canadian government bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was up nearly 2 basis points at 3.260%. (Reporting by Fergal Smith)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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