Factbox-What to expect in 2024: Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets

(Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by an oversized 50 basis points in its Sept. 17-18 meeting that Chair Jerome Powell said was meant to show policymakers' commitment to sustaining a low unemployment rate now that inflation had eased.

Fed policymakers also projected the benchmark interest rate would fall by another half percentage point by the end of this year, a full percentage point next year, and half a percentage point in 2026, though they cautioned that the outlook that far into the future was inherently uncertain.

Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds

S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

target yield

target

Goldman Sachs 6,000 3.85% 1.08 150 7.20

Morgan Stanley 5,400(for 1 140 7.5

June 2025)

UBS Global 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.20

Wealth

Management*

Wells Fargo 6,200-6,400 3.75%-4.25% 1.06-1.10 156-160

Investment (year-end

Institute 2025)

(WFII)

Barclays 5,600 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.55% 1.13 146 7.25

BofA Global 5,400 3.50% 1.12 151 7.30

Research

Deutsche Bank 5,750 3.80% 1.07 135

Citigroup 5,600 4.20% 1.08 141 7.20

HSBC 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10

5,900

Oppenheimer

5,900

UBS Global 5,850 4.0% 1.12 145 6.95

Research*

Evercore ISI 6,000

RBC 5,700

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U.S. INFLATION

U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again in November.

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)

Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.6% 2.6%

Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%

Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%

Investment

Institute

Barclays 2.9% 2.6%

J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%

BofA Global 3.5% 2.8%

Research

Deutsche Bank 3.10%

Citigroup 2.0% 2.7%

HSBC 3.4%

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Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

Goldman 2.7% 2.8% 4.9% 0.7% 0.9%

Sachs

6.7%

Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%

Stanley

UBS Global 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%

Wealth

Management*

Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 5.0% 0.3% 1.1% 6.2%

J.P.Morgan 2.7% 2.8% 4.8% 0.7% 0.9% 6.5%

BofA Global 3.1% 2.7% 4.8% 0.7% 1.1% 7.1%

Research

Deutsche 3.2% 2.7% 4.7% 0.9% 1.2% 7.0%

Bank

Citigroup 4.7% 0.7% 1.0%

2.6% 2.5% 7.1%

HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%

UBS Global 4.8% 1.1%

Research* 0.7%

3.2% 2.7% 6.8%

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Maju Samuel, Tasim Zahid, Devika Syamnath and Shounak Dasgupta)