CEE MARKETS-Forint firms as Hungary's central bank pauses rate cuts

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/22/24 10:15 AM EDT
    (Adds Hungary cen bank decision, forint reaction, trader quote)
    By Anita Komuves
       BUDAPEST, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Hungary's forint firmed
against the euro on Thursday after the central bank left its
base rate unchanged, as widely expected, and said it could keep
the rate at the current level for a prolonged period if needed.
        The forint was up 0.32% on the day and trading
at 400.55 per euro at 1347 GMT. The currency briefly firmed past
the psychologically important level of 400 after the rate
decision was announced but soon gave up those gains.

        "The market got what it had expected, that's why we did
not see a big move in the forint's rate," an FX trader in
Budapest said. "But the central bank's messages could put a cap
on weakening for a while."

        The National Bank of Hungary
    kept
     its base rate at 6.50%, halting cuts for now
despite inflation falling to its 3% target for the first time
since 2021.
    The bank could keep its base rate at the current 6.5% level
for a prolonged period if needed, Deputy Governor Csaba Kandracs
said.
    The forint, central Europe's worst performing currency in
2024, has weakened sharply in recent weeks, raising speculation
of a rebound in price growth and shifting expectations to a
pause in rate cuts.
    The forint fell beyond the 400-per-euro level this month for
the first time since March 2023.
    In Poland, the zloty was little moved, edging down
0.02% on the day to 4.32 per euro. The Czech crown
firmed 0.11% and was trading at 25.242, recovering some losses
from the previous session.
    Central European currencies have recently come under
pressure from uncertainties over the U.S. presidential election,
with chances of a Donald Trump victory helping the U.S. dollar
and weighing on the region's assets, analysts say.
    On Tuesday, the dollar clung to a 2-1/2 month high on
expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will take a measured
approach to rate cuts.
    "The crown is staying in a lightly defensive position," CSOB
bank said. "In the coming sessions, we do not expect any
significant improvement (as) nervousness before U.S. elections
will be evident in risk assets sensitive to a rise in U.S.
market rates."


                  CEE     SNAPSHOT    AT
                  MARKET             1547
                  S                  CET
                          CURRENCIE
                          S
                          Latest     Previo  Daily      Change
                                     us
                          trade      close   change     in 2024
 EURCZK  Czech    0
 EURHUF  Hungary  00
 EURPLN  Polish   EURRON  Romania  EURRSD  Serbian  00
         Note:    calculated from            1800 CET
         daily
         change

                          Latest     Previo  Daily      Change
                                     us
                                     close   change     in 2024
 .PX     Prague             1630.55  1627.5     +0.19%   +15.31
                                        200                   %
 .BUX    Budapes           74046.72  73990.     +0.08%   +22.15
         t                               26                   %
 .WIG20  Warsaw   5
 .BETI   Buchare  39                   %

                                             Spread     Daily
                                             vs Bund    change
                                                        in
         Czech                                          spread
         Republi
         c
 CZ2YT=           0
 CZ5YT=           CZ10YT           Poland
 PL2YT=           0
 PL5YT=           PL10YT           FORWARD RATE
                  AGREEMENTS
                          3x6        6x9     9x12       3M
                                                        interba
                                                        nk
         Czech    Hungary  Poland   Note:    are for ask
         FRA      prices
         quotes
         *********************************************
         *****************



 (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan
Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Mark Potter and Ed Osmond)



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