TREASURIES-Yields dip after cool PPI

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/11/24 09:21 AM EDT

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields briefly ticked lower early on Friday after a report showed producer prices were flat in September, avoiding an inflation curve ball for the Federal Reserve before it must decide how much more to ease at its next meeting.

The unchanged reading in the Producer Price Index for final demand last month followed an unrevised 0.2% gain in August, the Labor Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI edging up 0.1%. In the 12 months through September, the PPI increased 1.8% after climbing 1.9% in August.

The data followed news on Thursday that consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, lifted by higher food costs. The two reports supported views that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again, after September's aggressive 50-basis point reduction.

Yields soon after reversed. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was up 2.2 basis points from late Thursday at 4.116%.

The 30-year bond yield rose 3.4 basis points to 4.4193% and the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was off 1.6 basis points at 3.983%.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 13.1 basis points, steeper than late Thursday's +10.2 bp.

Based on the fed funds futures term structure, traders see an 82% chance of a 25 bps ease in the policy rate, which has been in a 4.75%-5.0% target range since the Fed cut last month, at the central bank's November meeting. The odds for a quarter-point cut were 85% late Thursday.

(Reporting by Alden Bentley; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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