GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, US yields higher after Fed minutes as inflation data eyed

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/09/24 02:49 PM EDT

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U.S. stocks advance but Alphabet weighs

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European shares gain on defensive boost

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Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updated at 2:20 p.m. ET/1820 GMT)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) -

Global stocks advanced on Wednesday along with U.S. Treasury yields, as investors digested minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting and awaited inflation data for clues on the central bank's interest rate path.

Minutes

from the meeting

showed a "substantial majority" of U.S. Federal Reserve officials supported beginning an era of easier monetary policy with an outsized half-point rate cut, but there appeared even broader agreement that the initial move would not commit the Fed to any particular pace of rate reductions in the future.

U.S. stocks held gains after the minutes, but the advance on the session was curbed in part by a 2.5% fall in Google-parent Alphabet's shares after the U.S. Department of Justice said it may ask a judge to force the company to divest parts of its business.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 346.47 points, or 0.82%, to 42,426.84, the S&P 500 rose 25.84 points, or 0.45%, to 5,776.97 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 57.66 points, or 0.32%, to 18,240.58.

Investors have dialed back expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed after last week's strong U.S. jobs report. They will also monitor inflation data on Thursday in the form of the consumer price index (CPI) for insight on the Fed's rate path, while the corporate earnings season kicks off with bank earnings on Friday.

"There's a lot going on in the market right now," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.

"The macro backdrop is solid, there's likely to be some churn around interest rate cut expectations between now and the end of the year. Really the key for the market over the next couple of weeks is the earnings season."

After completely pricing in a cut of at least 25 bps last week, with a 35.2% chance of a second consecutive cut of 50 bps, the market is betting on an 79.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's November meeting, and a 20.6% chance it will hold rates steady, CME's

FedWatch Tool

showed. The expectations for a cut in November decreased slightly after the Fed minutes.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President

Lorie Logan said

she supported last month's outsized rate cut but wants smaller reductions ahead, given "still real" upside risks to inflation and "meaningful uncertainties" over the economic outlook.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 2.12 points, or 0.25%, to 846.90 and was on track for a second straight session of gains. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index closed up 0.66%, buoyed in part by automakers as the indexed bounced back from a decline in the prior session.

China's stock rally short-circuited, with both the Shanghai Composite index and CSI300 index suffering their biggest one-day percentage drops since February 2020.

China's main information office said the finance ministry will

detail plans

on fiscal stimulus to boost the economy at a news conference on Saturday.

U.S. yields were modestly higher in the wake of Logan's comments and the Fed minutes, as well as an auction of 10-year notes. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes gained 3.4 basis points to 4.069% while the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 2.8 basis points to 4.007%.

The 10-year yield topped 4% for the first time in two months earlier in the week.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, climbed 0.39% to 102.89, with the euro down 0.38% at $1.0938.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.73% to 149.27. Sterling weakened 0.28% to $1.3067.

The New Zealand dollar weakened 1.35% versus the greenback to $0.6055 after the central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points and left the door open to more.

Crude prices slumped for a second straight session, on rising U.S. crude inventories, while the risk of Iranian supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and Hurricane Milton in the United States curbed price declines.

U.S. crude fell 0.38% to $73.29 a barrel and Brent fell to $76.59 per barrel, down 0.76% on the day.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Additional reporting by Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang and Nick Zieminski)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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