TREASURIES-US 10-year yield rises to 4% for first time in two months

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/07/24 06:58 AM EDT

(Updates with flattening of yield curve and comment)

LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4% for the first time in two months on Monday, as markets bet against another jumbo rate cut from the Federal Reserve after Friday's strong U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient economy.

The 10-year yield was up 3 basis points (bps) at 4.008%, having risen as high as 4.014% in London trade. It rose 13 bps on Friday, its biggest one-day rise since June 30.

The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy expectations, was up 7 bps to 4.006%, its highest since Aug. 22. It rose almost 22 bps on Friday, its biggest daily rise since April.

The closely watched spread between two- and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields briefly turned negative for the first time since Sept. 18, the day the Fed cut rates by 50 bps.

Data on Friday showed the U.S. economy added 254,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, well above the expectations of economists polled by Reuters.

"Friday's U.S. labour report put paid to U.S. recession fears and most remaining hopes that the Fed could follow up September's rate cut with another 50 bps move next month," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

Markets are fully pricing a 25 basis point rate cut in November, but see next-to-no chance of a larger 50 bps move, having seen around a 33% chance of one last week.

(Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Harry Robertson, editing by Alun John and Dhara Ranasinghe)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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