TREASURIES-US yields climb after strong services sector data

By Matt Tracy

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 - U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday after strong services sector data supported forecasts for a smaller interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting than in September.

U.S. services sector activity jumped to a 1-1/2-year high in September, accelerating to its highest level since February 2023, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s non-manufacturing purchasing managers (PMI) index released Thursday.

Yields on U.S. government bonds rose following this and other economic data released Thursday. U.S. 10-year yields climbed to their highest since Sept. 3 and were last up 3.5 basis points (bps) at 3.823%.

Initial jobless claims figures, also released Thursday, showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly more than expected last week.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose to its highest since Sept. 18 and was last up 4.3 bps at 3.691%.

The market has gone back and forth in recent days over the extent of an expected second Fed rate cut at its November meeting following its 50 bp cut last month. Expectations for a 25 bp cut at the Fed's November meeting inched higher following the data, with markets pricing in a 63.7% chance, with 36.4% chance 50 bps priced in, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

"The market is trying ever so carefully to price out a 50 bp rate cut, but it's not fully priced out yet," said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale.

Market participants are most focused on the Friday release of the government's more comprehensive payrolls and employment report for September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have signaled the central bank's primary focus has shifted from combating inflation to ensuring a stable labor market.

"There is some selling that's taking place in front of the nonfarm payroll number tomorrow," said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income trading at Curvature Securities.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was last at a positive 12.8 bps, little changed from 13.6 bps late Wednesday. (Editing by Nick Zieminski)