EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow

(Updates with JOLTS data)

Oct 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank has begun an interest rate-cutting cycle for the first time since the emergency reductions it implemented to support the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Most Federal Reserve policymakers see inflation trending toward their 2% target, and their focus is increasingly on protecting the job market.

After the Fed kicked off the easing cycle with an outsized half-percentage-point rate cut on Sept. 18, the debate has shifted to whether it will maintain that pace at its Nov. 6-7 meeting, immediately after the U.S. presidential election.

Here are the key statistics the Fed is watching in determining its next moves:

JOB OPENINGS (Released Oct. 1; next release Oct. 29):

Most Fed officials in the last couple of months have turned their primary attention from inflation to the job market, which this summer began exhibiting clear signs of weakening.

Data showing job openings rose in August for the first time in three months may provide little comfort, as the U.S. Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed hiring slid and the quits rate - a measure of how confident workers are about finding another job - dropped below 2% for the first time since June 2020.

Moreover, the ratio of vacant jobs to each unemployed person was just over 1.1-to-1, lower than its average in the 12 months preceding the pandemic.

Even so, Fed officials won't find much in the report signaling a sharp deterioration in conditions. The recent rise in the unemployment rate had largely been seen as a result of an increase in the size of the workforce, with outright job cuts remaining low. The JOLTS data showed layoffs declined to 1.608 million.

INFLATION (PCE released Sept. 27; CPI released Sept. 11; next CPI release Oct. 10)

The measure the Fed uses to set its inflation target came in softer than expected in August at 2.2%, the lowest rate since February 2021.

Moreover, the monthly measures of both the headline personal consumption expenditures price index and core PCE excluding food and energy costs have been running at subdued rates as of May. Annualized rates of the monthly change over the past four months for each are running well below the Fed's 2% target, with the headline figure at just over 1% and the core reading at around 1.8%.

Those improvements have occurred even as housing inflation remains sticky. The PCE measure of tenant rents was up by less than 5% in August for the first time since April 2022, but its index for imputed rent of owner-occupied residences ticked up to 5.4% on a year-over-year basis in August from 5.3% in July - its first acceleration since peaking at 8.1% in April 2023.

Should housing inflation overall maintain its plodding improvement and the current soft trend in other measures of inflation continue, more officials may join ranks with Fed Governor Christopher Waller in voicing concern that inflation may be at risk of decelerating too much, which might argue for additional rate cuts of the size delivered last month.

EMPLOYMENT (Released Sept. 6; next release Oct. 4):

U.S. firms added a weaker-than-expected 142,000 jobs in August, and revisions to the prior two months knocked 86,000 positions from the previously estimated number of payroll jobs. That pushed the three-month average total payroll growth down to 116,000, well below the level typical before the pandemic, adding further evidence that the economy is slowing.

The unemployment rate, however, edged down to 4.2%, which could allay some fears that the labor market is deteriorating rapidly or that the economy is on the cusp of recession.

Average hourly wages also rose 3.8% in August compared to a year ago, versus a 3.6% annual increase in July. The U.S. central bank generally considers wage growth in the range of 3.0%-3.5% as consistent with its inflation target.

(Reporting by U.S. economics and Fed team; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao)