Japan's 10-year bond yield flat as market expects BOJ to keep policy unchanged

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09/19/24 09:44 PM EDT

(Updates at 0125 GMT with comments)

TOKYO, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Japan's 10-year government bond yield was flat on Friday, as the market expects the Bank of Japan to maintain its interest rates at its policy meeting.

The 10-year JGB yield was at 0.85%, while the five-year yield was up 0.5 basis point (bp) to 0.495%.

At a two-day policy meeting to be concluded later in the day, the BOJ is widely expected to keep short-term interest rates steady at 0.25%.

Markets are focusing on whether BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will offer more hints at his post-meeting press conference on how soon the central bank could raise rates again.

"Ueda is unlikely to send a message that would boost expectations for the next interest rate increase, or specify the timing of it," said Naoya Hasegawa, chief bond strategist at Okasan Securities.

"But if the BOJ is to raise rates in December or January, the current level of yields is too low," Hasegawa said.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise rates again this year with most betting on a December hike.

The median prediction for the rate by end-year was 25 basis points higher at 0.50%. The two-year JGB yield was flat at 0.38%.

Money markets are not pricing the potential for a 25 basis point increase before the end of this year.

Earlier in the day, data showed Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated for the fourth straight month in August and tracked comfortably above the BOJ's 2% target.

The 20-year JGB yield was flat at 1.685%.

The 30-year JGB yield fell 1 bp to 2.045%.

The 40-year JGB yield also fell 1 bp to 2.33%.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita and Brigid Riley; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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