FOREX-Dollar slips in choppy trading as traders grapple with Fed's giant rate cut

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09/19/24 03:46 PM EDT
    (Adds missing "cuts" in first bullet, no other changes to text)

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      Steepening yield curve indicates upcoming rate cuts


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      Dollar index hit lowest in more than a year


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      Dollar strengthens versus yen ahead of key BOJ decision


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      Sterling jumps after BoE



    By Chibuike Oguh and Stefano Rebaudo
       NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped in
choppy trading on Wednesday as markets grappled with the
supersized 50 basis point interest rate cut, as well as the
switch to an easing monetary policy stance delivered by the
Federal Reserve.
    Investor expectations had largely shifted towards a dovish
outcome in the days leading up to the Fed's move on Wednesday,
with money markets pricing in around a 65% chance of a 50 basis
point (bp) cut. But economists polled by Reuters were leaning
towards a 25 bp cut.
    "The interesting thing is the half point cut, which was
pretty much unexpected or at least only half and half yesterday,
has not really given the dollar extra damage - which is quite
surprising," said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet
in New York.
    The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of six peers, was down 0.38% to 100.64 after
reversing gains made in early trading. It slid to its lowest in
more than a year of 100.21 in the previous session.
    The euro strengthened 0.4% to $1.1163. Against the
yen, the dollar was 0.33% higher at 142.73 as markets
anticipate that the Bank of Japan will leave interest rates
unchanged on Friday.
    The dollar weakened 0.08% to 0.847 against the Swiss franc
 and dropped 0.34% to 7.070 versus the offshore Chinese
yuan.
    "What it's really doing I think is giving permission, if you
will, for the other central banks around the world, some of whom
have started to cut rates already, to go further with their rate
cuts," Trevisani said.
    Money markets priced in 72 bps of additional rate cuts in
2024 and 192 bps by September 2025.
    The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which measures the gap
between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes
and seen as an indicator of economic expectations, steepened and
hit its highest since June 2022. It was last at a positive 13.4
basis points, indicating more upcoming rate cuts.
    Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped
unexpectedly to 12,000 last week, according to Labor Department
data on Thursday, suggesting labor market growth.
    Fed policymakers on Wednesday projected the benchmark
interest rate would fall by another half of a percentage point
by the end of this year, a full percentage point next year and
half of a percentage point in 2026.
    "The initial interpretation of the decision was that it was
dovish and while it was basically even odds that it was going to
happen, overall, on the surface, it's still a dovish move," said
Eugene Epstein, head of trading & structured products North
America at Moneycorp in Boston.
    "Everything reversed basically by the end of the day, so you
can make the argument as a bit of buy the rumour, sell the fact.
A lot of dovishness was already priced in."
    The pound hit its highest since March 2022 versus the dollar
after the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold. Sterling was up 0.5% against
the greenback at $1.3278 after reaching as high as $1.3314
.
    The Australian and New Zealand dollars drew support from
domestic data surprises. Australian employment exceeded
forecasts for a third straight month in August.
    The Aussie was up 0.77% to $0.6815.
    The kiwi, meanwhile, traded 0.58% higher at
$0.6244, after data showed the New Zealand economy contracted by
0.2% in the second quarter.


 Currency bid prices at 19
 September? 07:17 p.m. GMT
 Description                        RIC        Last      U.S. Close Previous Session  Pct Change  YTD Pct  High Bid  Low Bid
 Dollar index                                  100.62    101.02                       -0.39%      -0.74%   101.47    100.51
 Euro/Dollar                                   1.1162    1.1118                       0.4%        1.13%    $1.1179   $1.1069
 Dollar/Yen                                    142.61    142.3                        0.22%       1.11%    143.875   141.885
 Euro/Yen                                      1.1162?   158.18                       0.64%       2.29%    159.96    157.79
 Dollar/Swiss                                  0.8469    0.8463                       0.06%       0.62%    0.8515    0.845
 Sterling/Dollar                               1.3276    1.3214                       0.51%       4.37%    $1.3314   $1.3155?
 Dollar/Canadian                               1.3559    1.3606                       -0.34%      2.29%    1.3648    1.3534
 Aussie/Dollar                                 0.6812    0.6764                       0.73%       -0.07%   $0.6839   $0.6738
 Euro/Swiss                                    0.945     0.9408                       0.47%       1.79%    0.9465    0.9406
 Euro/Sterling                                 0.8406    0.8414                       -0.1%       -3.02%   0.8423    0.8392
 NZ Dollar/Dollar                              0.6243    0.6208                       0.65%       -1.12%   $0.6269   0.6183
 Dollar/Norway                                 10.4931?  10.5877                      -0.89%      3.53%    10.6504   10.4394
 Euro/Norway                                   11.7134   11.7726                      -0.5%       4.36%    11.7929   11.6517
 Dollar/Sweden                                 10.1611   10.2057                      -0.44%      0.93%    10.2535   10.1143
 Euro/Sweden                                   11.3423   11.3478                      -0.05%      1.95%    11.3597   11.2923




 (Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York and Stefano Rebaudo;
Editing by Conor Humphries and Aurora Ellis)

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