JGB yields edge down as BOJ's rate hike expectations ease

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09/18/24 01:59 AM EDT

TOKYO, Sept 18 (Reuters) -

Japanese government bond yields dipped on Wednesday as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike faded, while strong results of the BOJ's bond-buying operation lifted market sentiment.

The 10-year JGB yield fell 0.5 basis point (bp) to 0.82%. The two-year JGB yield fell 0.5 bp to 0.375%.

"The market expectations for the BOJ's rate hike, even raising the current policy rate to 0.5%, is weakening," said Keisuke Tsuruta, senior fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

"The Federal Reserve is cutting rates because the economy is slowing down, which means the domestic economy may slow down. Also, a stronger yen puts downward pressure on prices in Japan." The yen has been strengthening because the BOJ is expected to raise rates at the same time as the Fed prepares to cut. The BOJ is expected to keep short-term interest rates steady at 0.25 this week, but signal that further interest rate hikes are coming and highlight progress the economy is making in sustaining inflation around its 2% target.

A hawkish BOJ board member Naoki Tamura last week called for short-term interest rates to be lifted to at least 1% as soon as the second half of next fiscal year.

The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first interest rate cut in more than four years at 1800 GMT, with markets pricing a 2/3 probability of a 50 basis point cut.

The BOJ's bond buying operations earlier in the day showed willingness for investors to hold their JGBs ahead of the BOJ's meeting, strategists said.

The five-year yield fell 1 bp to 0.475%.

The 20-year JGB yield rose 0.5 bp to 1.625%.

The 30-year JGB yield fell 0.5 bp to 1.975%.

The 40-year JGB yield fell 1 bp to 2.245%.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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