US STOCKS-Futures kick off Fed meeting week on cautious note

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Futures: Dow up 0.23%, S&P 500 up 0.12%, Nasdaq off 0.02%

Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were flat to slightly higher on Monday as caution prevailed ahead of a pivotal monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve later in the week, with investors pricing in a steep reduction in borrowing costs.

Ever since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at an upcoming rate cut late last year, markets have embarked on a bull run, with the S&P 500 and the Dow now near record highs.

However, following a mixed batch of economic data and comments from a former policymaker in the last few weeks, traders swayed in their bets on what decision the central bank will arrive at during its Sept. 17 to 18 meeting.

Odds for a 50-basis-point cut are at 59% from 30% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which showed a 41% probability for a 25-basis-point reduction. There is concern that an outsized move could mean the Fed sees the economy cooling at a faster pace.

"As important as the 25 vs 50 debate will be the communication from the Fed. Would a 50bps be the start of 50s or a one off larger move to start the cycle? Would a 25bps mean the bar for subsequent 50s is high? There will be lots to digest," a group of strategists at Deutsche Bank led by Jim Reid said in a note.

The benchmark index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq notched their biggest weekly jump in about 11 months on Friday, although analysts attributed the optimism to signs of a robust economy rather than rate-cut expectations.

At 05:32 a.m., Dow E-minis were up 95 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 6.5 points, or 0.12% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 4.5 points, or 0.02%

Futures tracking small caps, which tend to do well with lower borrowing costs, outperformed with a 0.90% rise.

Economic data due through the week is light, with retail sales, weekly jobless claims, housing starts and industrial production on tap.

Rate-sensitive growth stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) slipped 0.40%, while Meta inched up 0.30% and Tesla rose 0.60% in premarket trading.

Intel Corp (INTC) climbed 3.7% after a report showed the chipmaker had officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the U.S. Department of Defense.

Trump Media & Technology (DJT) added 4.5% after an apparent second assassination attempt on the Republican candidate and former president on Sunday, weeks before the closely watched U.S. presidential election.

Crypto stocks trended lower, with Microstrategy (MSTR) down 2% and Riot Platforms (RIOT) slipping 1.4%, tracking a 1.7% fall in bitcoin prices.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai)