TREASURIES-Yields drop as betting markets up chances of Harris win

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 09/11/24 03:42 AM EDT

LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rallied on Wednesday, pushing benchmark 10-year yields to a new 15-month low, as the probability of a win in the November presidential election by Democrat Kamala Harris rose after a televised debate against Republican Donald Trump.

Ten-year Treasury yields dipped to a session trough of 3.609% as prices rose, the lowest since June 2023.

The debate gave investors little clarity on key policy issues, even as betting markets swung in favour of Harris after the event.

Goldman Sachs last week said the U.S. economy would likely get a bigger boost over the coming two years from a Harris win, while a Trump win would undermine growth mostly due to increased tariffs. Analysts also expect a Trump win to add more to debt levels.

Investor sentiment was fragile on Wednesday, creating a bid for safe-haven government bonds and low-yielding currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc and weighing on U.S. stock futures.

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said it was "clearly impossible to isolate the direct impact of the debate."

"The market for now seems to have some agreement with the probabilities above as to how the debate went. We will see how it resonates from here," he said.

Focus now turned to the release of monthly U.S. consumer inflation data later in the session.

Two-year Treasury yields fell just over 4 bps to around 3.56%.

(Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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