JGB yields track US peers lower as traders eye super-sized Fed rate cut

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09/05/24 01:27 AM EDT

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond yields sank on Thursday, tracking declines in U.S. Treasury yields after more soft economic data stoked bets the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by a super-sized 50 basis points (bps) this month.

The 10-year JGB yield dropped 2 bps to 0.865% as of 0441 GMT, after dipping to a two-week low of 0.860% earlier in the session.

Benchmark 10-year JGB futures rose 0.1 yen to 144.92 yen after earlier touching 145.15 yen for the first time since Aug. 16. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The equivalent-maturity U.S. yields sagged 7.6 bps overnight and continued their decline in Asian time to as low as 3.75%, a one-month trough.

Data released on Wednesday showed U.S. job openings dropped to a 3-1/2-year low in July, spurring traders to ramp up odds of a half-point Fed reduction on Sept. 18 to 45%, from 38% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

The market is now bracing for weekly U.S. jobless claims data later on Thursday, ahead of all-important monthly payrolls figures on Friday.

"Sentiment-wise, it's just risk-off," said Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist at Mizuho Securities, pointing to heightened demand for bonds amid a sell-off in global equities.

"It's not like people want to trade aggressively - it's more defensive," he added. "People are just trying to prepare their positions for Friday."

While Omori expects the Fed to opt for a 25-bp reduction this month, as "the U.S. economy is still OK," if equities continue to dive, it could push 10-year JGB yields to 0.82%.

The 30-year JGB yield declined 2 bps to 2.045%, with analysts describing the results of an auction of the bonds on Thursday as decent.

The 20-year JGB yield lost 1.5 bps to 1.680%.

The five-year yield edged down 0.5 bp to 0.50%, while the two-year yield was flat at 0.37%. (Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Eileen Soreng)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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