TREASURIES-US yields dip after inflation, labor market data

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 06/13/24 09:28 AM EDT

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Thursday after economic data showed a softening of the labor market while a reading on inflation indicated price pressures may be easing.

The Labor Department said the producer price index (PPI) for final demand dropped 0.2% last month after advancing by an unrevised 0.5% in April, and below the 0.1% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through May, the PPI increased 2.2% after rising 2.3% in April.

The data comes after a gauge of consumer prices (CPI) on Wednesday was unchanged in May for the first time in almost two years.

"When you look at today's PPI and yesterday's CPI, it's unambiguously good news on the inflation front. Of course, one report doesn't make a trend, but these are the sort of numbers and reports we need to see to be convinced that inflation is coming down, and for the Fed to be convinced that inflation is coming down," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in New York.

A separate reading of the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims climbed 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000, a 10-month high, and above the 225,000 estimate.

"When you see the rise in initial jobless claims, that just suggests that the labor market is coming more into balance, and it suggests that growth should moderate a bit down the road," said Martin.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note shed 2.6 basis points to 4.269%.

Yields had dropped after the consumer price index report on Wednesday but pared some declines after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December.

The yield on the 30-year bond fell 0.6 basis points to 4.444%. The U.S. Treasury Department will sell $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday in its final auction of the week.

Market expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's September meeting stand at 67.7%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up slightly from the 64.7% in the prior session.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 42.8 basis points.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, declined 5.5 basis points to 4.695%.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.171% after closing at 2.19% on June 12.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.217%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article