Manufacturing PMI? at 49%; November 2022 Manufacturing ISM? Report On Business?

BY PR Newswire | ECONOMIC | 12/01/22 10:00 AM EST

New Orders Contracting; Production Growing; Backlogs Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Decreasing; Exports and Imports Contracting

TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in?November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM? Report On Business?.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management??(ISM?)?Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The November?Manufacturing PMI? registered 49 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2 percent recorded in October. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates expansion for the 30th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI? figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.2 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the 49.2 percent recorded in October. The Production Index reading of 51.5 percent is a 0.8-percentage point decrease compared to October's figure of 52.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 43 percent, down 3.6 percentage points compared to the October figure of 46.6 percent; this is the index's lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 40 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the October reading of 45.3 percent. The Employment Index returned to contraction territory (48.4 percent, down 1.6 percentage points) after being unchanged in October at 50 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 47.2 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October figure of 46.8 percent. Except for last month, the Supplier Deliveries Index hasn't been at this level since February 2012 (47 percent).?The Inventories Index registered 50.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the October reading of 52.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 48.4 percent is up 1.9 percentage points compared to October's figure of 46.5 percent. The Imports Index dropped into contraction territory at 46.6 percent, 4.2 percentage points below the October reading of 50.8 percent."

Fiore continues, "The U.S. manufacturing sector dipped into contraction, with the Manufacturing PMI? at its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic recovery began. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous six months, the November composite index reading reflects companies' preparing for future lower output. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index remaining in contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index below 50 percent for a fourth consecutive month, (3) Customers' Inventories Index effectively in 'just right' territory, climbing 7.1 percentage points, and (4) Backlog of Orders Index moving deeper into contraction. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) declined month over month, with a combined negative 2.4-percentage point impact on the Manufacturing PMI? calculation. The Employment Index moved back into contraction, and the Production Index decreased but still remained in modest growth territory. Panelists' companies confirm that they are continuing to manage head counts through a combination of hiring freezes, employee attrition, and now layoffs. Inputs ? defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports ? mostly accommodated future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index expanded at a slower rate as panelists' companies continued to manage the total supply chain inventory. The Prices Index decreased for the ninth consecutive month, falling deeper into contraction territory.

"Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two ? Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment ? registered weak-to-moderate growth in November.

"Manufacturing contracted in November after expanding for 29 straight months. Panelists' companies continue to judiciously manage hiring, other than October 2022, the month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since February 2012 when it registered 47 percent, and material lead times declined approximately 9 percent from the prior month, approximately 18 percent over the last four months. Managing head counts and total supply chain inventories remain primary goals. Order backlogs, prices and now lead times are declining rapidly, which should bring buyers and sellers back to the table to refill order books based on 2023 business plans."

Six manufacturing industries reported growth in November, in the following order:?Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 12 industries reporting contraction in November, in the following order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • "Customer demand is softening, yet suppliers are maintaining high prices and record profits. Pushing for cost reductions based on market evidence has been surprisingly successful." [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • "Future volumes are on a downward trend for the next 60 days." [Chemical Products]
  • "Orders for transportation equipment remain strong. Supply chain issues persist, with minimal direct effect on output." [Transportation Equipment]
  • "Consumer goods are slowing down in several of our markets, although the U.S. economy seems decent. Cannot say the same for the European economy." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • "General economic uncertainty has created a slowdown in orders as we approach the end of the year, and many of our key customers are reducing their capital expenditures spend." [Machinery]
  • "Overall, things are worsening. Housing starts are down. We're doing well against our competitors, but the industry overall is down. We're sitting on cash (that is) tied up in inventory." [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
  • "The market remains consistent: sales match expectations; there are concerns about the impact of rising interest rates on customers; most suppliers have recovered on labor, but some are still struggling; and inflation seems to have peaked, but commodity price decreases have not been passed through to us. Lots of unknowns regarding impact to the European Union from the Russia-Ukraine war and questions about customer behavior in 2023." [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  • "There is caution going into 2023, but the commercial section of construction seems to still be going strong." [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
  • "Looking into December and the first quarter of 2023, business is softening as uncertain economic conditions lie ahead." [Plastics & Rubber Products]
  • "Slight improvement on overall business conditions from the previous month." [Primary Metals]

?

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
November?2022

Index

Series
Index

Nov

Series
Index

Oct

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend*
(Months)

Manufacturing PMI?

49.0

50.2

-1.2

Contracting

From Growing

1

New Orders

47.2

49.2

-2.0

Contracting

Faster

3

Production

51.5

52.3

-0.8

Growing

Slower

30

Employment

48.4

50.0

-1.6

Contracting

From Unchanged

1

Supplier Deliveries

47.2

46.8

+0.4

Faster

Slower

2

Inventories

50.9

52.5

-1.6

Growing

Slower

16

Customers' Inventories

48.7

41.6

+7.1

Too Low

Slower

74

Prices

43.0

46.6

-3.6

Decreasing

Faster

2

Backlog of Orders

40.0

45.3

-5.3

Contracting

Faster

2

New Export Orders

48.4

46.5

+1.9

Contracting

Slower

4

Imports

46.6

50.8

-4.2

Contracting

From Growing

1

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

30

Manufacturing Sector

Contracting

From Growing

1

Manufacturing ISM??Report On Business??data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Electrical Components; Electricity; Electronic Components (24); and Labor ? Temporary (3).

Commodities Down?in Price
Aluminum (7); Copper (2); Freight; Lumber (3); Ocean Freight (3); Plastic Resins (6); Polypropylene (4); Steel (7); Steel ? Carbon (5); Steel ? Hot Rolled (7); and Steel Products (5).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (26); Electronic Components (24); Hydraulic Components (7); Rubber Based Products; Semiconductors (24); and Steel Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

NOVEMBER 2022?MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI?
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in November, as the Manufacturing PMI? registered 49 percent, 1.2 percentage points below the reading of 50.2 percent recorded in October. "After five months of flat or marginally positive change, the decrease last month took the Manufacturing PMI? into contraction. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI?, two (Production and Inventories) were in growth territory, though both eased. The PMI? registered its lowest level since May 2020, when the index was 43.5 percent. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two ? Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment ? registered weak-to-moderate growth in November.?The Production Index decreased 0.8 percentage point, inching closer to contraction territory. Supply chain congestion continued to ease, indicated by the Supplier Deliveries Index showing faster deliveries. Only two of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI? above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.?Therefore, the November Manufacturing PMI? indicates the overall economy grew in November for the 30th consecutive month following contraction in?April and May?2020. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI? and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI? for November?(49 percent) corresponds to a 0.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

Manufacturing
PMI?

Month

Manufacturing
PMI?

Nov 2022

49.0

May 2022

56.1

Oct 2022

50.2

Apr 2022

55.4

Sep 2022

50.9

Mar 2022

57.1

Aug 2022

52.8

Feb 2022

58.6

Jul 2022

52.8

Jan 2022

57.6

Jun 2022

53.0

Dec 2021

58.8

Average for 12 months ? 54.4

High ? 58.8

Low ? 49.0

New Orders
ISM?'s New Orders Index contracted for the third consecutive month in November, registering 47.2 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the 49.2 percent reported in October. "None of the six largest manufacturing sectors reported increased new orders. Price and lead time declines as well as backlog contraction should encourage buyers to reenter the market and sales agents to be more aggressive in seeking new business," says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, only one reported growth in new orders in November: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. Fourteen industries reported a decline in new orders in November, in the following order: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

12.7

62.3

25.0

-12.3

47.2

Oct 2022

18.3

56.4

25.3

-7.0

49.2

Sep 2022

16.0

62.8

21.2

-5.2

47.1

Aug 2022

17.5

63.1

19.4

-1.9

51.3

Production
The Production Index registered 51.5 percent in November, 0.8 percentage point lower than the October reading of 52.3 percent, indicating growth for the 30th consecutive month. "Of the top six industries, only two ? Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment ? expanded in November. Materials and labor availability continue to improve, as panelists' companies begin to significantly reduce their backlogs of overdue orders," says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.

The seven industries reporting growth in production during the month of November ? listed in order ? are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in November ? in the following order ? are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Production

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

20.2

61.7

18.1

+2.1

51.5

Oct 2022

20.2

62.3

17.5

+2.7

52.3

Sep 2022

17.5

64.3

18.2

-0.7

50.6

Aug 2022

17.6

65.4

17.0

+0.6

50.4

Employment
ISM?'s Employment Index registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.6 percentage points lower than the October reading of 50 percent. "The index indicated employment contracted after being unchanged for one month. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery) expanded. Labor management sentiment continued to shift, with a number of panelists' companies reducing employment levels through hiring freezes, attrition, and now layoffs. In November, layoffs were mentioned in 14 percent of employment comments, up from 6 percent in October. Turnover rates remained consistent, with 30 percent of comments citing backfill and retirement issues, generally the same rate since September. For those companies expanding their workforces, comments continue to support an improving hiring environment," says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, seven reported employment growth in November, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in November are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Six industries reported no change in employment in November compared to October.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

12.8

70.6

16.6

-3.8

48.4

Oct 2022

16.0

68.9

15.1

+0.9

50.0

Sep 2022

17.5

60.3

22.2

-4.7

48.7

Aug 2022

19.3

68.3

12.4

+6.9

54.2

Supplier Deliveries?
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for a second straight month in November, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 47.2 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46.8 percent reported in October. Prior to October, the last reading under 50 percent was in February 2016 (49.6 percent); this is the first time the index has spent consecutive months in "faster" territory since October-December 2015. Of the top six manufacturing industries, one (Petroleum & Coal Products) reported slower deliveries. "Although a touch slower than the previous month, the November reading indicates the best month-over-month supplier deliveries performance in more than a decade (since February 2012, when the index registered 47 percent). In November, 86.1 percent of panelists reported 'same' or 'faster' delivery times. Panelists' comments overwhelmingly confirmed that suppliers performed better in November compared to previous months," says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Six of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in November, in the following order:?Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 11 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in November as compared to October ? in the following order ? are: Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

? Net

Index

Nov 2022

13.9

66.5

19.6

-5.7

47.2

Oct 2022

11.7

70.2

18.1

-6.4

46.8

Sep 2022

16.8

71.2

12.0

+4.8

52.4

Aug 2022

19.6

71.0

9.4

+10.2

55.1

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 50.9 percent?in November, 1.6?percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent reported for October. "Manufacturing inventories expanded at a slower rate compared to October. The index recorded its lowest level since July 2021, when it registered 49.1 percent. Of the six big manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) increased manufacturing raw material inventories in November. Panelists' companies continue their efforts to reduce their total supply chain inventories, indicated by the contraction in new orders, slow expansion in manufacturing inventories and the 'just right' level of customers' inventories," says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the eight reporting higher inventories in November ? in the following order ? are:?Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The eight industries reporting contracting inventories in November?? in the following order ? are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

20.9

58.3

20.8

+0.1

50.9

Oct 2022

21.6

63.3

15.1

+6.5

52.5

Sep 2022

23.0

64.9

12.1

+10.9

55.5

Aug 2022

23.2

62.9

13.9

+9.3

53.1

Customers' Inventories?
ISM?'s Customers' Inventories Index registered 48.7 percent in November, 7.1 percentage points higher than the 41.6 percent reported for October. "Customers' inventory levels are considered essentially 'just right.'?The index recorded its highest level since April 2020 (48.8 percent). The current index level is no longer providing positive support to future manufacturing expansion," says Fiore.

Six industries reported customers' inventories as too high in November, in the following order: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight?industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in November ? listed in order ? are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Customers'
Inventories

%
Reporting

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

Net

Index

Nov 2022

77

20.6

56.2

23.2

-2.6

48.7

Oct 2022

74

13.4

56.3

30.3

-16.9

41.6

Sep 2022

73

13.5

56.1

30.4

-16.9

41.6

Aug 2022

75

12.2

53.4

34.4

-22.2

38.9

Prices?
The ISM??Prices Index registered 43 percent in November, 3.6 percentage points lower compared to the October reading of 46.6 percent, indicating raw?materials?prices decreased for the second time in 29 months. This is the index's lowest level since a reading of 40.8 percent in May 2020. Over the past eight months, the index has decreased 44.1 percentage points, including a combined 26-percentage point plunge in July and August. None of the top six manufacturing industries reported increases in prices in November. "Price declines continue to be driven by relaxation in energy markets, copper, steel, aluminum, plastics, corrugate and as well as volatility in freight costs. Notably, 87 percent of respondents reported paying the same or lower prices in November, compared to 80 percent in October," says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6?percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In November, only one industry reported paying increased prices?for raw materials: Miscellaneous Manufacturing.?The 10 industries?reporting?paying decreased prices?for raw materials in November?? in the following order ? are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven?industries reported no change in prices?in November compared to October.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

13.1

59.8

27.1

-14.0

43.0

Oct 2022

19.7

53.8

26.5

-6.8

46.6

Sep 2022

31.4

40.5

28.1

+3.3

51.7

Aug 2022

31.7

41.6

26.7

+5.0

52.5

Backlog of Orders?
ISM?'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 40 percent in November, a 5.3-percentage point decrease compared to October's reading of 45.3 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the second consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one ? Machinery ? expanded order backlogs in November. "Backlogs contracted again in November at a notable rate, as weak new order levels combined with production expansion negatively impacted manufacturing books of business," says Fiore. "The index recorded its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 38.2 percent."

Two industries reported growth in order backlogs in November: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Machinery.?Twelve industries reported lower backlogs in November, in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Backlog of
Orders

%
Reporting

?

%Higher

?

%Same

?

%Lower

Net

?

Index

Nov 2022

91

13.7

52.6

33.7

-20.0

40.0

Oct 2022

93

17.4

55.8

26.8

-9.4

45.3

Sep 2022

90

25.5

50.8

23.7

+1.8

50.9

Aug 2022

93

24.6

56.7

18.7

+5.9

53.0

New Export Orders??ISM?'s New Export Orders Index registered 48.4 percent?in November, 1.9 percentage points higher than the October reading of 46.5 percent. "The New Export Orders Index contracted in November for the fourth consecutive month after 25 straight months in expansion territory. Weakness in European economies and China's economic sluggishness, as well as the strong dollar, continued to constrain new export order activity and negatively impact new order rates," says Fiore.

Three industries reported growth in new export orders in November: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.?The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in November are: Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in November compared to October.

New Export
Orders

%
Reporting

?

%Higher

?

%Same

?

%Lower

Net

?

Index

Nov 2022

72

11.2

74.4

14.4

-3.2

48.4

Oct 2022

73

6.7

79.5

13.8

-7.1

46.5

Sep 2022

72

9.4

76.7

13.9

-4.5

47.8

Aug 2022

75

9.9

79.0

11.1

-1.2

49.4

Imports?
ISM?'s Imports Index registered 46.6 percent in November, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points compared to October's figure of 50.8 percent. "The index moved into contraction in November after five months of expansion, dropping to its lowest level since May 2020 (41.3 percent)," says Fiore.

The four industries reporting growth in imports in November?are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. Nine industries reported lower volumes of imports in November, in the following order: Wood Products; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Imports

% Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

84

10.2

72.8

17.0

-6.8

46.6

Oct 2022

84

9.3

82.9

7.8

+1.5

50.8

Sep 2022

83

15.2

74.8

10.0

+5.2

52.6

Aug 2022

83

15.6

73.8

10.6

+5.0

52.5

?The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average?commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in November?was?177?days, a decrease of two days compared to October. Average lead time in November for Production Materials?was 84 days, a decrease of nine days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies?was 44 days, a decrease of four days.?

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Nov 2022

16

4

8

11

33

28

177

Oct 2022

16

6

6

12

30

30

179

Sep 2022

16

5

7

11

32

29

178

Aug 2022

18

5

6

11

29

31

180

?

Percent Reporting

Production Materials

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Nov 2022

8

23

25

27

13

4

84

Oct 2022

8

21

26

25

13

7

93

Sep 2022

9

24

24

22

13

8

94

Aug 2022

7

22

24

25

15

7

96

?

Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Nov 2022

30

34

17

15

3

1

44

Oct 2022

27

36

16

15

5

1

48

Sep 2022

26

35

19

15

4

1

48

Aug 2022

26

34

21

14

5

0

46

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM??makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data?should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM? Report On Business? is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest manufacturing subsectors are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. Beginning in February 2018 with January 2018 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI?, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI??is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI??reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI??above 48.7?percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7?percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7?percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline.?With some of the indicators within this report, ISM? has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM? Report On Business? survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM? receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM? then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM? Report On Business? monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management? ("ISM") Report On Business? (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business?, PMI?, and NMI? are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management?. Institute for Supply Management? and ISM? are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management?
Institute for Supply Management? (ISM?) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM? Report On Business?, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM? Advance? Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM? Report On Business??is posted on ISM?'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Manufacturing ISM? Report On Business? featuring December?2022?data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, January 4, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:

Kristina Cahill


Report On Business? Analyst


ISM?, ROB/Research Manager


Tempe, Arizona


+1 480.455.5910


Email: kcahill@ismworld.org

?

Institute for Supply Management logo. (PRNewsFoto/Institute for Supply Management) (PRNewsfoto/Institute for Supply Management)

?

Cision View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-49-november-2022-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301690752.html

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article