The Conference Board Leading Economic Index? (LEI) for the U.S. Fell in April

BY PR Newswire | ECONOMIC | 05/19/22 10:00 AM EDT

NEW YORK, May 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index? (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in April to 119.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in March. The LEI is now up 0.9 percent over the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

(PRNewsfoto/The Conference Board)

"The US LEI declined in April largely due to weak consumer expectations and a drop in residential building permits," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. "Overall, the US LEI was essentially flat in recent months which is in line with a moderate growth outlook in the near-term. A range of downside risks?including inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and pandemic-related shutdowns, particularly in China?continue to weigh on the outlook. Nevertheless, we project the US economy should resume expanding in Q2 following Q1's contraction in real GDP. Despite downgrades to previous forecasts, The Conference Board still projects 2.3 percent year-over-year US GDP growth in 2022."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index? (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in April to 108.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February. The CEI increased by 1.6 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index? (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in April to 111.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in March. The LAG increased by 2.6 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes





2022




6-month


Feb


Mar


Apr


Oct to Apr



















Leading Index

119.4

r

119.5

r

119.2

p



? Percent Change

0.7

r

0.1

r

-0.3

p

0.9


? Diffusion

60


60


45


60











Coincident Index

108.1

r

108.4

r

108.8

p



? Percent Change

0.3

r

0.3

r

0.4

p

1.6


? Diffusion

75


75


100


100











Lagging Index

110.4

r

111.2

r

111.6

p



? Percent Change

0.1

r

0.7

r

0.4

p

2.6


? Diffusion

50


78.6


42.9


85.7











p? Preliminary???? r? Revised









Indexes equal 100 in 2016









Source:? The Conference Board








The next release is scheduled for Friday, June 17, 2022, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index? (LEI) for the U.S.:?The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points?in the economy?in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or "leads") turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index? for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM? Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500? Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index?; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

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SOURCE The Conference Board

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