U.S. Treasury yield forecasts are only a bit higher than a month ago despite the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, according to market strategists polled by Reuters who are still putting off making major changes to their longer-term inflation view.
* US economic data shows weaker GDP growth, higher jobless claims, and steady inflation gauges. * Hormuz ship traffic still below normal volumes. * Israel seeking direct negotiations with Beirut. By Chuck Mikolajczak.
Foreign investors bought fewer two-, five-, and seven-year U.S. Treasury notes at last month's auction than in February, as conflict raged in the Middle East, data from the U.S. Treasury Department released on Wednesday showed. Foreign buyers purchased $6.024 billion of the latest two-year notes in March, about half the $13.190 billion bought in the previous month.
* Plunge in oil prices boosts equities and risk appetite. * Fed rate-cut expectations revived by lower oil prices. * Ten-year notes auction seen as mediocre. By Chuck Mikolajczak. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday after a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sent oil prices plummeting and resurrected the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
* US president's deadline raises oil prices, dampens Treasury safe-haven demand. * Fed's Williams says Middle East conflict may boost US inflation. * US capital goods orders rise in February. By Chuck Mikolajczak.
* Middle East ceasefire plan proposes immediate truce. * Shifting comments by Trump, Iran add to market uncertainty. * US services sector cools, but prices paid index surge. * US rate futures price out rate cuts in 2026. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
* US, Iran weigh peace framework as Trump threatens Iran infrastructure attacks. * US Treasury yields little changed while dollar dips. By Sin?ad Carew and Gregor Stuart Hunter.
* US, Iran weigh peace framework as Trump threatens Iran infrastructure attacks. * Crude oil trading choppy, WTI still above $110. * US Treasury yields little changed while dollar dips. By Sin?ad Carew and Gregor Stuart Hunter.
* Unemployment rate dips; report shows downward revisions. * Jobs report not as strong as it looks -analyst. * Fed rate cut chances reduced for 2026 post-jobs data. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
* Unemployment rate dips; report shows downward revisions. * Jobs report not as strong as it looks -analyst. * Fed rate cut chances reduced for 2026 post-jobs data. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
U.S. Treasury yields advanced on Friday after data showed the world's largest economy created a lot more jobs than expected last month, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady for longer and not cut them.
* Trump's unclear stance on Middle East war fuels inflation fears. * Iran, Oman drafting protocol on Strait of Hormuz traffic. * Fed rate-cut expectations fade after worrisome inflation data. * Focus shifts to US payrolls report for March. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
* Trump's unclear stance on Gulf war fuels inflation fears. * Iran, Oman drafting protocol on Hormuz Strait traffic. * Fed rate-cut expectations fade on worrying inflation data. * Focus shifts to US payrolls report for March. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Wayne Cole.
Treasury yields were jerked higher in Asia on Thursday as dashed hopes for an early end to the Gulf war sent oil prices flying and fanned fears the resulting inflation would close the door to any prospect of easier monetary policy.
* ISM manufacturing PMI index hits highest since August 2022. * US private payrolls rise in March. * US rate futures shift from pricing hikes to modest easing. * Trump says US will end war in Iran. * Markets await Trump's remarks Wednesday evening. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
* ISM manufacturing PMI hits highest level since August 2022. * Prices-paid index jumps to 78.3, highest since June 2022, amid supply chain issues. * US rate futures shift from pricing hikes to modest easing. * Trump says US will end war in Iran. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
By Jamie McGeever. Are central banks unloading Treasuries amid the controversial U.S.-led war in the Middle East? On the one hand, foreign-owned Treasuries held in custody at the New York Federal Reserve just fell to a 16-year low below $3 trillion. As I wrote last week, the decline in Fed "custody" holdings since the Iran war started on February 28 has been eye-catching.
U.S. Treasury yields came off their lows for the day after a pair of reports on Wednesday showed continued resilience for the world's largest economy, affirming expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold off cutting interest rates for some time. Both U.S. private payrolls for March and retail sales came in higher than expected.
The dollar's modest rebound since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran started a little over a month ago will fade as its safe-haven appeal erodes, according to currency strategists in a Reuters poll who stuck to their long-held view the currency will weaken. Traditional safe havens have generally faltered, with U.S. Treasury yields markedly higher and gold slipping over 10% since the conflict started.
The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan jumped last week to its highest level since August, as rising oil prices fueled inflation fears and drove up yields on the Treasury bonds that lenders widely use as benchmarks for setting mortgage rates.
The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan jumped last week to the highest since August, as rising oil prices from the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran fueled inflation fears and drove up yields on the Treasury bonds that lenders widely use as benchmarks for setting mortgage rates.
* Gold rises over 1% to highest since March 19. * US Dollar at 1-week low, 10-yr Treasury yields near two-week low. * Trump says deal with Iran not necessary for conflict to wind down. By Ishaan Arora.
Global stocks rallied and oil futures retreated on Wednesday on hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war. The U.S. dollar softened against a basket of other currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields rose from their lows after a pair of reports underscored resilience in the U.S. economy.
* US 2/10 yield-curve bull steepens. * US rate futures shift from pricing hikes to modest easing. * US notes, bonds headed for monthly increase. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss. U.S. Treasuries ended the first quarter higher on Tuesday, rebounding after a month of heavy selling, as a report suggesting possible de-escalation in the Middle East boosted demand for government debt.
Inflation risks have driven Treasury yields higher since the U.S. clash with Iran ignited energy prices. Wall Street continues to expect the war to end soon, easing pressure on both the price of oil and the U.S. purse. BNP Paribas, for instance, expects the U.S. deficit to stay just below 6% of GDP over 2026 and 2027. SIGNS OF INFLATION STRESS.
* US 10-year yield sees largest one-day rise since October 10. * US two-year yields post biggest monthly rise since October 2024. * US crude futures up over 50% in March. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as uncertainty persisted around the Iran war and elevated energy prices. The selloff in Treasuries comes as energy prices remained elevated despite U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday extending a pause on energy infrastructure strikes against Iran.
* Stocks continue to slide as Trump fails to calm markets. * US Treasury yields hit highest since July as bonds fall. * Analyst: 'Words alone aren't cutting it right now' By Chibuike Oguh and Harry Robertson.
* Stocks continue to slide as Trump fails to calm markets. * US Treasury yields hit highest since July as bonds fall. * Analyst: 'Words alone aren't cutting it right now' By Chibuike Oguh and Harry Robertson.
Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to their highest level since July on Friday as markets grappled with the fallout of the Iran war, after U.S. President Donald Trump's extension of a key deadline failed to soothe energy prices. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 4.464%, up 4 basis points, after jumping 9 bps the previous day.
* Stocks continue to slide as Trump fails to calm markets. * US president extended key deadline but oil prices rise again. * US Treasury yields hit highest since July as bonds fall. By Harry Robertson and Stella Qiu.
The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan surged by the most in 11 months last week to the highest since October as rising oil prices from the war in Iran fanned inflation fears, forcing up yields on the Treasury bonds most influential to mortgage rates.
* Oil prices surge amid Strait of Hormuz shipment disruptions. * U.S. Treasury yields increase, dollar strengthens. * Euro zone growth stalls due to inflation and war impact. By Caroline Valetkevitch and Amanda Cooper.
* Two-year yield spikes on soft auction, last at 3.944% * Yields higher as Iran war persists. * 10-year yield last up to 4.419% By Matt Tracy. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday after an auction of two-year notes met underwhelming demand, as market uncertainty persists around the Iran war and elevated oil prices.
* Oil prices surge amid Strait of Hormuz shipment disruptions. * U.S. Treasury yields increase, dollar strengthens. * Euro zone growth stalls due to inflation and war impact. By Caroline Valetkevitch. Major global stock indexes were mixed on Tuesday as oil prices extended recent sharp gains and worries persisted over how long the Israeli-U.S. war on Iran will go on.
* Yields higher as Iran war persists. * 10-year yield last up to 4.403% * Treasury to auction $69 billion in two-year notes. By Matt Tracy. U.S. Treasury yields inched higher on Tuesday morning as optimism over a quick easing of the Middle East crisis faded, renewing concerns about inflation risks.
* US to deploy more troops to Middle East, pushing oil prices up. * Iran attacks Kuwait oil refinery, adds to market stress. * Inflation swaps show higher consumer prices in next 12 months. * US rate futures start to price in rate hike. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
* US dollar and Treasury yields extend gains. * Silver, platinum and palladium head for weekly fall. By Ashitha Shivaprasad. Gold prices fell by 1.8% on Friday as the dollar strengthened on a report that the United States will deploy extra troops in the Middle East, fanning concerns of higher oil prices, inflation, and with it, elevated interest rates.
* US dollar and Treasury yields extend gains. * Silver, platinum and palladium head for weekly fall. By Ashitha Shivaprasad. Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Friday as the dollar strengthened after reports that the U.S. will deploy thousands of additional troops in the Middle East, further fanning concerns of higher oil prices, inflation, and with it, elevated interest rates.
* Middle East developments expected to dominate markets. * Oil surge, rising Treasury yields in focus. * Investors watch technical levels as S&P 500 drops below key trendline. By Lewis Krauskopf. A Middle East crisis that has convulsed markets should remain the focal point for Wall Street in the near term, as investors stay glued to developments in Iran and the fallout from surging energy prices.
* Brent breaches $119 a barrel as Iran conflict worsens. * US Treasury yields climb but off earlier highs. * Multiple central banks keep rates unchanged. By Chuck Mikolajczak.
* Fed rate-cut view trimmed as global central banks turn cautious. * BoE, ECB decisions highlight inflation risks from Middle East conflict. * US yield curve flattens as short-term rates rise faster. * US $19 billion 10-year TIPS auction comes in weaker than expected. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss.
* Brent breaches $119 a barrel as Iran conflict worsens. * US Treasury yields climb but off earlier highs. * Multiple central banks keep rates unchanged. By Chuck Mikolajczak.
* Fed rate cut view trimmed amid global central bank decisions. * BoE, ECB decisions highlight inflation risks from conflict. * US yield curve flattens as short-term rates rise faster. By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Amanda Cooper and Rae Wee.
* Oil surges as Iran conflict worsens. * US Treasury yields climb but off earlier highs. * Multiple central banks keep rates unchanged. By Chuck Mikolajczak. Global stocks tumbled on Thursday as the latest escalation in the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran caused another surge in oil prices, while major central banks left interest rates unchanged as they try to gauge the climb in price pressure.
U.S. Treasury yields eased back from their highs on Thursday, paring their earlier increase that appeared driven by technical factors, even as fresh data pointed to labor market resilience and improving manufacturing activity in the U.S. Northeast. The releases supported the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to be patient before restarting its rate-cutting cycle.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.
Log In Required
Publication Date