US consumer sentiment hit the lowest on record this month, reflecting heightened worries about higher prices and the overall economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, University of Michigan's preliminary survey showed Friday. The main sentiment index plunged about 11% to 47.6 in April from March. Wall Street expected a 51.5 print, according to Bloomberg's poll.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down in late-morning trading on Friday as investors weighed the latest inflation data that came in below expectations. The US seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose by 3.3% year over year and 0.9% sequentially in March, driven by rising energy prices due to the war in Iran.
US consumer inflation accelerated to its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March as the Middle East conflict sent energy prices sharply higher. The consumer price index advanced 0.9% last month, its strongest pace of growth since June 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.6 in April from 53.3 in March, much lower than expectations for an increase to 51.5 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.
Canada's economy added 14,000 jobs in March, or 0.1% month over month, which is more-or-less in line with consensus expectations for a 15,000 gain, said TD after Friday's Labour Force Survey. Employment was essentially flat across job types, with full-time employment edging down slightly, or 1,000, while private-sector employment rose by 15,000 on the month.
BMO's Douglas Porter says the bottom line to be taken from Friday's Canadian employment data is that "for a refreshing change", results were "no big surprise" in March, and he adds the big picture take away is that job growth has been quite modest over the past year, but so, too, has been the growth in the available labour force, holding the unemployment rate steady.
Gold futures eased early Friday even as the dollar weakened after a report showed U.S. inflation surged in March on higher gasoline prices, cutting hopes for a cut to interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Gold for May delivery was last seen down $31.10 to US$4,786.90 per ounce.
"Overall, and through the monthly volatility, the Canadian labour market still appears quite weak, which should limit the ability of the current oil price shock to widely spread into broader inflationary pressures, enabling the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates at their current level throughout 2026," says CIBC's Andrew Grantham after the release Friday of Canada's LFS employment data for M...
The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.1% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust was 0.1% higher in Friday's premarket activity amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and the release of consumer inflation data.
After a string of job losses to begin the year, Canada's labour market had "some signs of stabilization" in March, says Royce Mendes at Desjardins after the release of Friday's Labour Force Survey showing the Canadian economy added back 14,000 jobs in March, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7%. But, he adds, all of the new positions were part-time, with full-time jobs "stable" after...
Canada's employment was little changed in March, up 14,000 or 0.1% month over month, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, said the country's statistical agency in Friday's Labour Force Survey. The job increases were in line with a forecast 14,500 increase and 6.7% unemployement rate provided by MUFG.
The US seasonally adjusted consumer price index, a measure of inflation, rose by 0.9% in March, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:30 am ET and following a 0.3% increase in February, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Canada releases the Labour Force Survey for March on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, said ING. Consensus is for a 15,000 payroll increase after the very soft 83,000 drop in February, noted the bank. However, the bigger signal for the Bank of Canada tends to come from the unemployment rate rather than the quite volatile monthly swings in jobs, stated ING.
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Thursday, the first drop in seven sessions, on some profit taking, but also on wariness around continuing geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and lingering concerns around inflation with a recent spike in oil prices seen adding to existing tariff-related pressures on global economies.
The US economy expanded at a slower rate in the fourth quarter than previously projected, as consumer spending growth decelerated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate showed Thursday. Real gross domestic product increased at a 0.5% annualized rate in the December quarter, down from the 0.7% growth reported in the second estimate.
The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 0.9% in March after a 0.3% gain in February, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg, with higher gasoline prices due to the conflict in Iran the key factor. Not only are gasoline pump prices expected to rise, but other categories that rely heavily on energy, such as airfares, are expected to see a large push higher.
The third estimate of Q4 GDP showed a 0.5% gain, revised down from a 0.7% increase in the previous estimate. Personal spending is now reported up 1.9% after a 2.0% increase in the advance estimate. There were upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending that were offset by downward adjustments to residential fixed investment and private inventories.
Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US rose more than expected, while continuing claims reached the lowest level since May 2024, government data showed Thursday. For the week through April 4, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims increased by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week's average that was adjusted upwards by 1,000, the Department of Labor said.
US inflation accelerated sequentially in February as real consumer spending edged higher, with analysts expecting price pressures to intensify due to the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.4% month over month in February following a 0.3% gain in the prior month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.
The Federal Reserve Board said Thursday it has terminated a 2018 cease-and-desist order against Goldman Sachs (GS), effective March 25, after the firm addressed regulatory concerns. The Fed also ended a 2015 enforcement action against Credit Agricole and its corporate and investment banking unit, as well as a 2018 order against Mega International Commercial Bank, including its US branches.
US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised lower to a 0.5% increase in Q4 from a 0.7% gain in the second estimate, compared with estimates for no revision in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET. GDP rose by 4.4% in Q3. Personal consumer expenditures were revised lower to a 1.9% gain from the 2.0% increase in the second estimate and were below a 3.5% gain in Q3.
US initial jobless claims rose to a level of 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from an upwardly revised 203,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for a smaller increase to 210,000 in survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week moving average increased by 1,500 to 209,500 after decreasing by 2,750 to a level of 208,000 in the previous week.
The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Thursday -- up versus the yen and Canadian dollar, down versus the euro and pound -- ahead of a busy day of data releases, starting with weekly jobless claims, the third estimate of Q4 GDP, and personal income, spending and price data, all at 8:30 am ET.
The Federal Reserve should be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy in light of heightened risks to inflation and employment driven by the Middle East conflict, minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 meeting showed Wednesday.
Federal Open Market Committee participants emphasized the need to remain "nimble" in responding to incoming data, with views still mixed on the future policy path, minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting released Wednesday showed.
18 FOMC meeting showed a continued divergence of opinions on the path of policy, especially in light of the conflict with Iran, with most expecting a further rate cut at some point but others less certain. Recent comments of note: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that rising energy prices clouds the outlook for inflation, which is already above the FOMC's target and appears to remain sticky.
Despite marking up its inflation projections and keeping topline economic growth unchanged, UBS said it continues to expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year. The latest signaling from the BoC is consistent with a cautious approach to changes in the policy rate in either direction, wrote the bank in a note to clients.
State-level data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Wednesday showed the unemployment rate rose in one state, Florida, in January and held steady elsewhere. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage point in Florida. Nonfarm payrolls rose in five states, fell in Washington D.C. and were little changed elsewhere.
According to Rosenberg Research in a comment on Canada within Wednesday's 'Early Morning With Dave' note a "most curious development today" is why traders still believe the Bank of Canada will be making its next move a rate hike, "or a steady diet of rate hikes, for that matter."
The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Wednesday following a temporary ceasefire with Iran and ahead of a lighter data schedule leading into the minutes of the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 2:00 pm ET.
Demand for US durable goods decreased more than estimated in February amid weakness in the aircraft component, government data showed Tuesday. Orders for tangible items with an average life of at least three years fell 1.4% sequentially to $315.50 billion in February, following a 0.5% drop the month prior, the Census Bureau said.
Consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth increased to a 3.4% gain in March from a 3.0% gain in the previous month, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday. The median inflation expectations accelerated to a 3.1% gain from a 3.0% gain for the three-year period but remained at a 3.0% gain for five years ahead.
The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Tuesday -- up versus the yen and Canadian dollar, down versus the euro and pound -- ahead of the release of durable goods orders data for February at 8:30 am ET and weekly Redbook same-store sales at 8:55 am ET.
US services growth slowed more than expected in March, with the price measure reaching its highest level in more than three years amid elevated oil and fuel costs due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday. The ISM's purchasing managers' index declined to 54 last month from 56.1 in February.
The Institute for Supply Management's US services index fell to a reading of 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February, compared with expectations for a smaller decrease to a reading of 54.9 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET. The index indicates a slower pace of expansion.
The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Monday after the long holiday weekend and before a busy week of data releases leading up to the March consumer price report on Friday. Only the ISM's non-manufacturing reading for March is scheduled for Monday at 10:00 am ET.
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