Canada's main stock market on Monday set its eight record close of 2026, with the resources heavy Toronto Stock Exchange buoyed by precious metals prices, and overcoming a mixed response to December inflation data and the release of business and consumer sentiment surveys from the Bank of Canada.
Canadian consumer prices fell 0.2% month over month in December, but that translates to a 0.3% month-over-month rise in seasonally adjusted terms as prices are normally cut late in a year, sid Bank of Montreal.
The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey overall indicator improved slightly in Q4 but remained subdued at -1.78, said TD after Monday's data. The share of firms anticipating a recession eased to 22% from 33% in the previous quarter, noted the bank. Investment intentions improved modestly in Q4.
Canada's headline consumer price index growth rose to 2.4% year over year in December from 2.2% in November, with the increase largely driven by higher indirect taxes, with prior-year levels lowered artificially by a temporary GST/HST holiday in place from mid-December 2024 to mid-February 2025, said RBC.
The Bank of Canada Monday released the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers.
After Thursday's weak Canadian existing home sales data, the country was on the receiving end of another real estate data the day after, with housing starts bouncing by 10.9% month over month to 282,400 units at an annual rate in December -- beating expectations of a 260,000 unit reading, said Rosenberg Research.
Bond yields were little changed by Monday's consumer price index data, which did little to change expectations for Bank of Canada policy setting, said CIBC. Headline CPI contracted 0.2% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted, while rose 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and 2.4% year over year, with both of those readings slightly above consensus expectations, noted the bank.
A "slightly hotter-than-anticipated" headline Canadian CPI print for December "masks a cooling in underlying inflationary pressures", said Royce Mendes at Desjardins on Monday. According to Mendes, Desjardins continues to believe inflationary pressures are "tame enough" for the Bank of Canada to place less weight on the upside risks to consumer prices.
Canadian inflation was a little stronger than expected in December, although not by enough to concern the Bank of Canada, said CIBC after Monday's release of the consumer price index. Headline CPI was -0.2% month over month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or +0.3% seasonally adjusted and 2.4% year over year, with both of those readings slightly above consensus expectations.
The Canadian consumer price index rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 2.2% increase in November, said the country's statistical agency on Monday. December's CPI was higher than the 2.2% year over year consensus provided by MUFG.
The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey and the country's consumer price index inflation data are both out on Monday, said TD. Consensus expectations are for inflation to soften on a month-on-month basis, while remaining steady year-on-year, noted the bank. This report is unlikely to move the needle for the BoC and TD expects it to remain on hold for the time being.
Canada will refresh the consumer price index figures for December at 8:30 a.m. E.T. on Monday, said Scotiabank. The signal that the Bank of Canada is on hold for an extended period is clearly communicated, noted Scotiabank. Consensus is looking for a 0.3% month-over-motn seasonally unadjusted dip in CPI as per the polling convention, stated the bank.
It's a data-filled week for Canada after the recent run of indicators left much to be desired, said Bank of Montreal. Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET, consumer price index inflation looks to fall month-over-month, thanks in part to a plunge in gasoline prices in December, noted the bank.
Canada is scheduled to publish the consumer price index data for December at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, said National Bank of Canada. In Canada, the main event will be the publication of the CPI for December, noted the bank. The drop in gasoline prices could translate into a 0.6% month-over-month decrease in headline inflation during the month not seasonally adjusted, stated National Bank.
Canada will release the consumer price index data for December at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, said RBC. The bank expects headline inflation to trend broadly sideways in December, matching the 2.2% year-over-year in November. An 8% drop in December gasoline prices should push energy prices further below a year ago, pointed out the bank.
The Reserve Bank of India is urging the government to put a plan to link BRICS nations' central bank digital currencies on the agenda for the 2026 summit it will host.
The International Monetary Fund revised its estimate for 2026 global growth higher in its most recent World Economic Outlook released on Monday, now matching the pace seen in 2024 and 2025. Most regions saw upward adjustments for 2026 but few changes to forecasts for 2027. "This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces," the IMF said.
Schneider Electric, a global energy technology leader, announces its participation in the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. ?It is clear we have entered a new era where AI and energy are inseparable, and together, they will reshape every business,? said Olivier Blum, CEO of Schneider Electric. ?AI requires compute, and compute requires energy.
US equity indexes closed lower this week amid divergent bank earnings, hot-and-cold inflation data, and the threat to the Federal Reserve's independence from a Department of Justice probe. * The S&P 500 closed at 6,940.01 on Friday versus 6,966.28 a week ago.
Inter, the financial institution serving more than 41 million customers, has received regulatory approval from the Florida Office of Financial Regulation and the Federal Reserve to establish a state?licensed international banking branch in Florida, marking a significant milestone in its international expansion.
The Federal Reserve should keep the door open to interest rate cuts amid a fragile labor market, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Friday. While the US economy continues to grow at a strong pace, the labor market has become "increasingly more fragile," Bowman said in prepared remarks for delivery in Massachusetts.
According to Avery Shenfeld, in his 'Week Ahead' market call, a 0.4% drop on Monday in the CPI for December would represent a trend-like 0.2% rise in seasonally adjusted terms, and leave the 12-month rate at 2.2%. He said that's "quite favourable" given that there's an upward bias in the 12-month figure because the prior December benefited from a short lived sales tax holiday on items like rest...
US benchmark equity indexes were higher intraday as markets evaluated shifting dynamics in the race to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up 0.2% each at 6,956.1 and 23,571.8, respectively, after midday Friday.
US industrial production increased more than expected in December, led by a rebound in utilities, data from the Federal Reserve showed Friday. Industrial output rose 0.4% last month following a similar, upwardly revised pace of growth in November. Utilities output expanded 2.6% in December following a 0.3% contraction the month before, underpinned by gains in natural gas, the Fed said.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned that labor market conditions could weaken further and said the central bank should avoid signaling a pause in monetary policy.
Canadian housing starts came in at a "robust" 282,400 annualized units in December, marking an 11% month-over-month increase from November's level, said TD. The picture was unchanged on a trend basis, however, with the six-month moving average of starts clocking in at 264,400 units, the bank added.
The total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts for all areas in Canada was up 11% in December at 282,439 units compared with November's 254,625 units, said the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Friday. The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 12,271 units, noted CMHC.
Canada started 2025 with moderate optimism on the housing market with the expectation it would benefit from the easing in the Bank of Canada policy rate since the summer of 2024, along with the resulting decline in mortgage rates, said Scotiabank. The bank was also expecting economic and income conditions to firm up in 2025, which would have added support to housing demand.
AUO announced today that its Suzhou Fab has been recognized by the World Economic Forum?s Global Lighthouse Network in the Talent category, becoming the first in the global display industry to receive this honor. Paul Peng, Chairman of AUO said: "As manufacturing races ahead in digitalization and workforce transformation, competitiveness hinges on talent and technology advancing together.
Canada's data run isn't that encouraging this week, with housing remaining soft in December, while manufacturing and wholesale volumes were weak in November, said Bank of Montreal. Emphasizing the first theme is an expected decline in December housing starts at 8:15 a.m. ET on Friday, noted the bank.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) said Thursday that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has designated its registered broker-dealer, MUFG Securities Americas, as a primary dealer. The company said MUFG Securities Americas, as a primary dealer, will serve as a trading counterparty with the New York Fed. MT Newswires does not provide investment advice.
US equity indexes were off session highs at the close on Thursday after Federal Reserve heavyweights outlined the consequences of damaging the central bank's independence, undermining the boost to risk sentiment from strong earnings and rolling back of threats to strike Iran. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.3% to 23,530.02, giving up gains of as much as 1% earlier in the session.
A handful of former Fed officials noted that the markets' measured response to a probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell was a result of pushback from Trump allies.
Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US unexpectedly fell, while continuing claims also moved lower, government data showed Thursday. For the week through Jan. 10, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims dropped by 9,000 to 198,000, the Department of Labor said. The four-week moving average totaled 205,000, its lowest level since Jan. 20, 2024, the DOL said.
The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 117 points, passing the 33,000 level, to a new record high. The best performers are industrials and financials. Canadian existing home sales fell 2.7% month-on-month in December, marking a second straight monthly drop, and largest decline since March. Average home prices were flat on m/m basis in December.
European stock markets closed mostly higher Thursday as the Stoxx Europe rose 0.5%, Germany's DAX 40 gained 0.3%, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.5%, and the Swiss Market Index increased 0.1%. France's CAC 40 eased 0.2%. In Germany, annual gross domestic product grew 0.2% in 2025, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
China's central bank announced several targeted easing measures earlier Thursday at a joint briefing with State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said Societe Generale.
After two years of a mild recession, the German economy returned to modest growth in 2025, said Berenberg after Thursday's gross domestic product data. Helped by a 1.4% rise in private and a 1.5% increase in public consumption, calendar-adjusted GDP edged up by 0.3% last year, noted the bank.
Canadian existing home sales declined 2.7% month over month in December, marking the second straight monthly drop and the largest decline since March, said TD after the Canadian Real Estate Associaton released data on Thursday. New listings decreased 2% month over month in December, a fourth straight monthly drop.
Rosenberg Research said Thursday it "marvels" over the unanimous opinion among Bay Street economists that the Bank of Canada is done in this easing cycle. Many think the next move is a tightening and the markets seem to have bought into that "illusion," the research said, before adding: "A pause is only a pause."
US initial jobless claims fell to a level of 198,000 in the week ended Jan. 10 from a downwardly revised 207,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for an increase to 215,000 in survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week moving average declined by 6,500 to 205,000 after decreasing by 8,500 to a level of 211,500 in the previous week.
The latest Global Economic Conditions Survey published by ACCA and IMA found a gloomy outlook clouding Q4 2025. Highlights and the full report are available at https://www.imanet.org/about-ima/gecs. The Global New Orders Index suffered a third consecutive quarterly decline, raising the risk of some moderation in global growth, although it remains significantly above its pandemic-era low.
Canada's housing market was still chilled in December, with existing home sales falling 2.7% in the month and 4.5% from a year ago, said Bank of Montreal. With new listings also down 2% in the month, the market balance didn't change much at the national level, and remains balanced overall, noted the bank.
The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Thursday, except for a decline against the yen, ahead of a busy day of economic releases, starting with weekly jobless claims, import and export prices for November, and manufacturing data for January from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks, all at 8:30 am ET.
Canadian existing home sales fell 2.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted in December, said Scotiabank after the release of data from the Canadian Real Estate Association on Thursday. Weather likely played a role as winter gripped large parts of the country earlier than normal in recent years, stated the bank. MT Newswires does not provide investment advice.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
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