US benchmark equity indexes were lower intraday as traders parsed the latest economic data, including a report showing the unemployment rate reached the highest level in more than four years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.9% at 47,985.8 after midday Tuesday, while the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 6,766.
US private-sector output growth hit a six-month low in December as price pressures intensified "noticeably," according to S&P Global's (SPGI) flash purchasing managers' index released Tuesday. The composite output index fell to 53 this month from 54.2 in November, representing its lowest point since June, the data provider said.
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All three major US stock indexes were pointing lower in late-morning trading on Tuesday, as investors digested the November jobs report. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September, compared with a 4.5% rate expected, while the labor force participation rate rose to 62.5% from 62.4% in September.
Retail sales were flat in October as outlays on motor vehicles and at fuel stations declined, delayed data from the US Census Bureau showed Tuesday. Sales remained unchanged in October, compared with the Bloomberg-compiled consensus for growth of 0.1%. The pace of increase in September was revised down to 0.1%. The report was delayed because of a recent federal government shutdown.
The Bank of Canada received some comforting news on Monday with the as expected 0.1% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted November consumer price index print, while the headline inflation rate did come in a tad below market expectations, staying at 2.2% year over year instead of inching up to 2.3% as the consensus had penciled in, noted Rosenberg Research.
Job growth rebounded in November after payrolls declined in October, while the unemployment rate shot up to the highest level in more than four years, delayed government data showed Tuesday. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The November report was delayed by more than a week because of the recent federal government shutdown.
Chile's central bank will announce its policy decision at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday. According to Deutsche Bank, the persistence of core inflation and the behavior of services inflation prescribe continued caution, while the performance of activity and the labor market affords the BCCh the space to avoid rushing the next cut.
A few more rounds of Canadian data came in on Monday the form of November existing home sales and housing starts, which further highlight the soft demand and excess supply in this interest-rate-sensitive sector -- setting the stage for more shelter disinflation, said Rosenberg Research.
US retail sales held steady in October, below the 0.1% increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following the previous month's 0.1% gain. Excluding a 1.6% decrease in motor vehicle sales, retail sales were up 0.4% compared with an expected 0.2% gain.
The November employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000, above the 50,000 increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while October payrolls fell by 105,000 due to a 157,000-jobs decline in the government sector. Private payrolls rose by 69,000 in November after a 52,000 increase in October, above the increase of 50,000 private jobs expected.
Combined with softer than expected October data, this morning's numbers point to at least a modestly weaker jobs market as the economy heads into the end of the year.
Numerator, a data and technology company providing insights into consumer behavior, released its November 2025 Numerator Consumer Price Index with an advance read on inflation trends across everyday consumer goods. Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis? Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Numerator CPI tracks prices and changes in consumer purchases over time.
The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.02% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust retreated 0.2% in Tuesday's premarket activity ahead of key economic data. US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures down 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures retreating 0.2% before the start of regular trading.
US equity futures were tracking in the red on Tuesday as traders await the national employment situation report for November. The S&P 500 declined 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% and the Nasdaq was off 0.3% in premarket activity. The nonfarm payrolls report for November is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET.
The fiscal year 2026 deficit forecast of the Canadian province of Manitoba has roughly doubled, despite using up the $200 million contingency reserve set aside in the Spring Budget, said Scotiabank. The new deficit forecast for the FY26 budget balance is $1.7 billion, or 1.7% of nominal gross domestic product, compared with the Budget forecast of a $800 million deficit, or 0.8% of GDP.
Sterling has weakened alongside the US dollar at the start of this week, resulting EUR/GBP rising back up closer to the 0.8800 level after hitting a low of 0.8721 of last Tuesday, said MUFG. The bank expects sterling to weaken further as the Bank of England moves to lower rates on Thursday, stated MUFG.
European stock markets were mostly declining midday Tuesday, with investors remaining cautious ahead of the US jobs data release. Asian markets declined at closing, while Wall Street futures were tracking lower hours before market open.
Wall Street futures were declining premarket Tuesday pending the release of key US economic data, including the delayed jobs report. In the futures, the S&P 500 was down 0.2%, the Nasdaq was 0.3% lower, and the Dow Jones was off 0.1%. Asian markets closed Tuesday in the red, while major European bourses were also tracking lower midday.
Hungary's central bank is very likely to leave rates unchanged at 6.50% on Tuesday, said ING. The main focus will be on MNB's new forecast and forward guidance, wrote the bank in a note to clients. More interesting is the impact of the extended and expanded price shield measures, as well as the increased fiscal targets, on the outlook for 2026 and beyond, stated ING.
US stocks started the week lower as investors awaited key economic data to be released later this week, including the November employment report. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6% to 23,057.4, closing lower for a third consecutive session. Most sectors ended higher, led by health care, while technology saw the steepest decline. The government's nonfarm payrolls report for November is out on Tuesday.
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower again on Monday, falling for a second day from Thursday's record high on weak commodity prices while investors found little inspiration in November CPI data that came in softer than expected, even as underlying pressures persist, and November home sales that remained flat.
US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 50,000 in November after a 119,000-jobs gain in September, the most recent month that data was available for, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The November employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Tuesday and will include October establishment survey data, but not household survey data for October that was not able to be calculated.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that shelter prices remain elevated due to supply/demand imbalances from two to four years ago and the FOMC should be focused on the outlook for inflation, not fixing issues in the past.
The Canadian inflation print in November was generally more moderate than consensus expectations, with the overall consumer price index posting annual growth of 2.2%, while the median consensus among economists was 2.3%, said National Bank of Canada.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Monday that core inflation is likely closer to the US central bank's 2% target than what official data suggest. The President Donald Trump ally was one of the three Federal Open Market Committee members who dissented from the majority in last week's move to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Canadian core inflation gauges for November came in softly, even as the headline consumer price index roughly matched expectations, said Scotiabank. Canada's November CPI was 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year based on data released on Monday.
National Bank of Canada said it sees likely changes in policy rates at the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. For nearly the past decade, the two central banks have moved directionally in tandem, but that's due to change in 2026, noted National Bank. The bank sees the Fed continuing to ease early in the year, while the BoC will remain on hold before starting to increase policy in the fall.
Canadian consumer prices rose 0.1% month over month in November, or 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms, a bit lower than expected and mild enough to hold the annual inflation rate steady at 2.2%, said Bank of Montreal.
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Canadian existing home sales declined 0.6% month over month in November, partially reversing October's 1% month-over-month gain, said TD after Monday's data from the Canadian Real Estate Association. Ontario and Quebec, drove the national decline, noted the bank.
CIBC expects headline inflation will see some volatility in the months ahead, thanks to base effects from last year's GST/HST holiday, but it also expects core measures excluding tax changes to continue easing following the release of "generally softer measures of core inflation" Monday.
Canadian headline consumer price index inflation for November came in at 2.2% year over year, matching October's pace and broadly in line with expectations, said TD after Monday's data. However, inflation at the grocery store heated up in November, with prices up 4.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in October and the fastest pace of increase in nearly two years.
Canadian headline prices rose 0.1% month over month in November, matching expectations, said Desjardins after Monday's consumer price index data. That left the annual rate of inflation tracking 2.2% for the second month in a row. The average three-month annualized rate of the Bank of Canada's trimmed mean and median measures fell to 2.3% from 2.6%, respectively.
US equity futures were higher ahead of Monday's opening bell, with traders gearing up for a busy week of economic data releases. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.5%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures were 0.6% higher. Key economic reports due this week include nonfarm payrolls, housing starts and permits, retail sales, and the consumer price index.
The Canadian consumer price index rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in November, matching the increase in October, said the country's statistical agency on Monday. November's CPI was slightly lower than the 2.3% year-over-year consensus figure provided by Scotiabank.
The total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts for all areas in Canada was up 9.4% in November to 254,058 units compared with October, said Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. November's increase was higher than the 250,000 consensus figure provided by Scotiabank. The six-month trend in housing starts decreased 1.7% in November to 264,445 units, according to CMHC.
US equity futures were higher pre-bell Monday, with traders gearing up for a busy week of economic data releases. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 0.5% higher, S&P 500 futures were up 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures were 0.6% higher. Key economic reports due this week include nonfarm payrolls, housing starts and permits, retail sales, and the consumer price index.
Canada will release one of two consumer price index readings ahead of the next Bank of Canada meeting on Jan. 28 on Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET, Bank of Montreal said. While the data could move markets, Scotiabank said it does not expect any major policy implications, with the BoC signaling a prolonged pause and a more forward-looking stance.
Canadian existing home sales fell 0.6% month over month in November, or 10.7% year over year, and remain little changed since the summer, said Bank of Montreal after Monday's release of the Canadian Real Estate Association data. New listings declined 1.6%, raising the sales-to-new listings rate to 52.7%, indicating generally balanced market conditions, noted the bank.
Overall, last week's events confirm that Canada's economy is holding up well despite global uncertainties, said TD. This was echoed in the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement on Wednesday, which brought tidings of comfort, if not exactly joy, noted TD. Inflation also remains a key focus for the BoC.
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