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Turkey's central bank Thursday said its Monetary Policy Committee decided to reduce the policy rate -- the one-week repo auction rate -- by 100bps to 39.50%, as expected.

Canadian retail sales rose 1.0% month over month in August, in line with expectations and Statistics Canada's flash estimate, said Bank of Montreal. Most sectors posted higher sales, led by clothing and accessories, general merchandise and autos. The 10 provinces were split down the middle, with half reporting higher spending.

October has delivered broadly hawkish hard data for the Bank of Canada, said ING.

Bitcoin is back above $109,00 ahead of Friday's CPI release, despite net outflows from Spot ETFs. Spot BTC ETFs saw a $101.3 million outflow, while Spot ETH ETFs recorded $18.8 million outflows. Bitcoin Stuck, Key Levels Hold Importance Daan Crypto Trades noted Bitcoin is rangebound between $107,000?$111,000, with thin trading volume causing sharp swings.

Canada will publish retail sales for August and preliminary September data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal. The retail sales report for August will give the bank the final piece of hard data to shape the gross domestic product call.

Wall Street futures were muted pre-bell Thursday as traders weighed soft earnings reports from EV-maker Tesla and tech giant IBM, and looked forward to the next inflation bulletin from Washington. Despite the lengthening federal government shutdown, now in its 23rd day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its September consumer price index bulletin at 8:30 am ET, on Friday.

Sterling weakened sharply on Wednesday initially after the release of the much weaker United Kingdom consumer price index report for September, although a large part of the sell-off was quickly reversed, said MUFG. GBP/USD initially dropped sharply from around 1.3385 and hit a low of 1.3311 before rebounding back towards 1.3350, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted: Markets: United States Treasuries recover into 20-year auction, sideways in Asia. U.S.: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. economy is looking good, might see a lower consumer price index in the coming months. Trade: The Trump administration is considering broad restrictions of exports to China made with U.S. software.

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.160, a level that, in ING's view, can work as an anchor again on Thursday and possibly for a few more days should the United States consumer price index fail to add much to the US dollar narrative.

Societe Generale in its early Thursday economic news summary pointed out: -- US dollar broadly bid with oil, Unite States Treasury yields steady after solid 20-year auction. -- South Korea: Bank of Korea leaves rates on hold at 2.50% as expected. -- Day ahead: European Central Bank speaker Lane.

Investors are in wait-and-see mode as the U.S. shutdown stalls data releases and China signals restraint on export controls, keeping markets range-bound ahead of Friday?s CPI report.

The National Association of Realtors' measure of US existing-home sales is expected to accelerate to a 4.06 million annual rate in September, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, after falling by 0.2% to a 4.00 million rate in August. Existing-home sales were at a 3.90 million rate in September 2024, so the year-over-year change would be positive.

Fed Governor Chris Waller?s payments account proposal would let the private sector innovate at the front end and keep the Fed as the trusted settlement layer behind it, argues Digital Self Labs? Linda Jeng.

The province of Alberta is expected to be among Canada's top-performing economies this year and in 2026, said RBC. Yet despite the economic resilience, its unemployment rate ranks among the highest in Canada -- well above neighboring Saskatchewan and Manitoba and comparable with Ontario, where there's more exposure to United States tariffs, noted the bank.

The Bank of Canada should still be on track to cut rates at next Wednesday's policy meeting, which isn't yet fully priced in, said Rosenberg Research. What tilts the balance for lower rates and a weaker Canadian dollar -- stuck at C$1.40 -- is the BoC Business Outlook Survey for Q3, which was just published on Monday, noted Rosenberg Research.

Investors will have some time to sit back and stew over their Bank of Canada calls ahead of next Wednesday's policy meeting, said Bank of Montreal. According to the bank: -- Economic growth is "limping" below potential, with the 1.6% contraction in Q2 likely to be followed by a sub-1% advance in Q3. -- The job market has been sluggish despite the strong print for September.

The United Kingdom's unchanged consumer price index inflation of 3.8% year over year in September undershot the Bank of England and Bloomberg consensus forecast that it would take a final step up to 4.0% year over year, said Berenberg.

Not one of the more encouraging inflation reports in Canada, with the consumer price index coming in at 0.1% month over month non-seasonally adjusted in September versus the 0.1% consensus decline expectation -- that is a considerably large miss, said Rosenberg Research.

The Federal Reserve has shared a revised plan with other US regulators that would meaningfully reduce the amount of additional capital big banks must hold from a level proposed under the Biden administration, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation today released its Q4 update of the 2025 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, forecasting solid but moderating economic performance through the end of 2025. Equipment and software investment surged during the first half of 2025.

After a long delay, the 2025 Canadian federal budget is finally coming Nov. 4, said Desjardins. While it's difficult to know exactly how big the planned deficits will be, announced spending and tax cuts make clear that they will be among the largest in recent memory as a share of gross domestic product outside of a recession or pandemic, noted the bank.

The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Wednesday, except for a decline versus the yen, ahead of a quiet day that includes only weekly petroleum stocks inventory data at 10:30 am ET and an appearance by Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr at 4:00 pm ET.

Wednesday's United Kingdom inflation data keeps the door open at the Bank of England for another rate cut this year, said Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank's chief U.K. economist. Headline consumer price index came in nearly 0.2 percentage point below the BoE's MPC's projection at 3.78% year over year, noted the bank.

If Canadians think ticket prices for a concert or sports game seem "eyewatering" these days, it's because they are, said Bank of Montreal. The latest consumer price index report showed spectator entertainment costs jumped 10.7% month over month in September, the fastest pace since the early 1990s.

Societe Generale in its early Wednesday economic news summary pointed out: -- Gold and silver stabilize after correcting on Tuesday, blip or start of deeper mean reversion? -- U.K.'s consumer price index unchanged at 3.8% year over year in September, below forecast. -- Day ahead: European Central Bank speakers Lagarde, Guindos.

Hispanic consumer confidence dropped in the third quarter of the year as uncertainty and increased prices placed added pressure on their budgets, according to a poll from Florida Atlantic University?s Business and Economic Polling Initiative. The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index read in at 71 in the third quarter, down from 81.2 in the second quarter.

US equity indexes ended mixed on Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced on the back of strong quarterly results from old economy names, and gold futures saw reportedly the biggest intraday drop since 2013. The Dow climbed 0.5% to 46,924.74, the S&P 500 was unchanged at 6,735.35, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2% to 22,953.666 at the close.

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Tuesday for the third time in four sessions as the pace of profit taking increases, the gold price eases and a September inflation report only muddied the water further for the Bank of Canada in terms of whether or not it should cut its benchmark interest rate again before the end of this month.

Canada's inflation measures, released on Tuesday, were steady in September, said David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie. Trim/median averaged +0.23% month over month and were boosted by food and energy prices. This effect is likely to reverse with October's data release, stated Doyle. Underlying measures are likely to moderate further ahead, predicted the economist.

Canada's consumer price index for September was 0.1% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted and 2.4% year over year, noted Scotiabank. Canadian core inflation measures remain good enough for the Bank of Canada to cut next week when properly evaluated in terms of month-over-month trends and breadth.

The Toronto Stock Exchange has dropped 485 points at midday with miners and info tech, the worst performers. Gold is down 4.7%, while silver is 6.4% lower. Telecoms, up 0.3% and industrials, the sole gainers. Headline CPI inflation for September came in at 2.4% year-on-year, ahead of expectations for a 2.2% y/y print.

Not sure why this is even up for debate, but a few commentators have tried to assert in recent weeks. that the 15-year high in Canada's youth unemployment rate is purely a function of a soft economy, said Bank of Montreal.

Hungary's central bank on Tuesday said the Monetary Council left the key base rate at 6.50%, a move expected by the majority of economists.

A larger-than-expected acceleration in headline consumer price index makes the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision next week a little more complicated, but core measures of inflation are likely still subdued enough, and gross domestic product growth sluggish enough, to justify a further 25bps cut in interest rates, said CIBC.

Canadian headline consumer price index inflation for September came in at 2.4% year-on-year, ahead of expectations for a 2.2% year-over-year print, said TD after Tuesday's CPI data. September's reading was up from 1.9% year over year in August. Gasoline prices again provided a smaller drag to the headline, down 4.1% year over year from 12.7% lower in August.

Canadian consumer prices rose 0.1% month over month in September, or a "chunky" 0.4% month over month in seasonally adjusted terms, firm enough to lift headline inflation five full ticks to 2.4% year over year, said Bank of Montreal.

Canadian headline inflation accelerated to 2.4% year over year from 1.9% in August, the quickest pace of advance since February, said Desjardins. Both gasoline and food prices rose sharply during the month. Other measures of core inflation also suggest that underlying inflation isn't heating up, stated Desjardins.

The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey for Q3 came in contractionary for an unprecedented eleventh consecutive quarter, said Rosenberg after its release on Monday. The subindex assessing future sales expectations swung to negative terrain for the first time since Q2 2023.

The Canadian headline consumer price index accelerated by more than anticipated in September, but core measures of inflation were just subdued enough to support a further 25bps cut from the Bank of Canada next week, said CIBC.