Both the Federal Reserve Chairman and the Bank of Canada Governor are slated to host press conferences in the coming week, and when they are likely to be questioned on the inflation outlook for their respective nations, they might prefer to offer a terse "no comment", says Avery Shenfeld in his regular 'The Week Ahead' column published Friday.
A combination of broad-based USD gains and Canada's weak February employment report caused USD/CAD to rally and test a key resistance trendline now at 1.3723 and resistance at 1.3728 today, according to RBC Capital Markets. The risk is toward further gains in USD/CAD, the bank said in its weekly FX view.
The preliminary Michigan Sentiment index fell to 55.5 in March from 56.6 in February. According to Michigan, consumers' assessment of current conditions improved in March, while the near-term outlook deteriorated. The second estimate of Q4 GDP showed a 0.7% gain, revised down from a 1.4% gain in the advance estimate.
Gold trader lower midafternoon on Friday as the U.S. dollar rose to a four-month high after a report showed a key U.S. inflation measure eased in January, while a first revision to U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product slashed estimated growth in the period. Gold for April delivery was last seen down US$61.80 to US$5,064.00 per ounce.
Demand for US durable goods unexpectedly held firm in January amid a drop in transportation equipment orders, official data showed Friday. Orders for tangible items with an average life of at least three years were virtually unchanged at $321.19 billion in January, following a 0.9% drop the prior month, the Census Bureau said.
US consumer sentiment fell this month amid worries that higher energy prices could threaten personal finances as the war in the Middle East continued, a University of Michigan survey showed Friday. The headline sentiment index dropped to 55.5 from 56.6 in February, according to preliminary results of the survey.
European stock markets closed mostly lower in Friday trading as the Stoxx Europe was down 0.3%, Germany's DAX fell 0.4%, the FTSE 100 declined 0.3%, France's CAC lost 0.6%, and the Swiss Market Index edged up 0.1%. In the UK, monthly real GDP was stagnant in January, after rising 0.1% in December, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The US economy expanded in the last quarter of 2025 at a slower pace than initially estimated amid weaker consumer spending and a larger downturn in exports, government data showed Friday. Real gross domestic product in the world's largest economy grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in the December quarter, according to a second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 were up slightly, while the Nasdaq Composite was down in late-morning trading Friday, as oil prices pulled back slightly and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published a downwardly revised Q4 GDP figure. The BEA downwardly revised Q4 GDP to a 0.7% increase from a 1.4% gain in the advance estimate.
The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 55.5 in March from 56.6 in February, a smaller decline than expected compared with a level of 54.8 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.
According to CIBC's Katherine Judge, today's employment figures will "throw cold water on market hawks" who had priced in a chance of the Bank of Canada hiking rates this year. CIBC continues to expect no move from the BoC this year. MT Newswires does not provide investment advice.
Friday's Canada jobs data release for February 2026 is a "decidedly weak report", said TD Bank, noting not only did employment decline, but the labour force contracted for a second consecutive month. "Even looking through some of the noise in the top-line jobs figures, the unemployment rate rose again, reversing most of last month's improvements.
Gold edged lower early Friday, remaining largely rangebound as the U.S. dollar rose to a four-month high after a report showed a key U.S. inflation measure eased in January, while a first revision to U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product slashed estimated growth in the period. Gold for April delivery was last seen down US$6.00 to US$5,119.80 per ounce.
The Canadian labor market took a worrisome turn in February, with employment dropping by 84,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% from 6.5%, said CIBC. That was in contrast to the consensus expectation for a gain of 10,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.6%, noted the bank.
US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised lower to a 0.7% increase in Q4 from a 1.4% gain in the advance estimate, compared with an expectation for no revision in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. GDP rose by 4.4% in Q3. Personal consumer expenditures were revised down to a 2.0% gain from the 2.4% increase in the advance estimate and were below a 3.5% gain in Q3.
The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Friday ahead of the release of revised Q4 gross domestic product and personal income, spending and durable goods data for January, all at 8:30 am ET.
Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Friday highlighted: Markets: United States Treasuries fall in the New York session, turn sideways in Asia. U.S. says it will allow countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea for the next 30 days. Banks: U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman says the Fed will unveil relaxed capital proposals in the coming week.
There is an incredibly busy week of central bank meetings next week and however the conflict pans in Iran out between now and these meetings, investors should be in a better position to understand the reaction functions of key G10 central banks by the end of next week, said MUFG.
US equity indexes fell on Thursday as surging crude oil amid Iran's threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut fueled concern that inflation will pose a challenge to the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates this year.
The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in January as exports hit an all-time high and imports fell, delayed government data showed Thursday. The goods and services deficit shrank by 25% sequentially to $54.46 billion in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
Initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 213,000 in the week ended March 7, lowering the four-week moving average by 4,000 to 212,000, a second straight decrease. Insured claims fell by 21,000 to 1.850 million in the week ended Feb. 28.
US housing starts increased in January to the highest level in 11 months, driven by as a surge in multi-family projects, delayed government data showed Thursday. Housing starts rose 7.2% sequentially to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.49 million units, the highest level since February 2025, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Canada's merchandise trade deficit expanded much more than economists expected in January and it was the widest in five months, said National Bank of Canada. This surprise was largely due to temporary disruptions in the automotive industry, which led to the largest decline in nominal exports since April 2025, noted the bank.
Turkey's central bank Thursday said its Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the policy rate, the one-week repo auction rate, at 37.0%, as expected. Before the policy statement, Societe Generale said expectations were for CBT to hold rates. The MPC also maintained the Central Bank overnight lending rate and the overnight borrowing rate at 40.0% and 35.5%, respectively.
Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened to $3.6 billion in January from $1.3 billion in December, said Bank of Montreal after Thursday's data. Exports dropped 4.7% month over month, with weakness across the board. Metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 8.0% month over month on lower gold shipments to the United Kingdom, while transport equipment declined after a strong 2025.
Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened to $3.6 billion in January from $1.3 billion in December, as exports and imports fell by 4.7% month over month and 1.1% month over month, respectively, said RBC. Monthly trade flows continue to show considerable volatility tied to swings in precious metals shipments and non-tariff related disruptions to motor-vehicle trade, noted the bank.
Markets didn't pay attention to poor Canadian trade data, as the Iran war developments continue to take center stage, said CIBC on Thursday. On the data itself, CIBC noted the Canadian international trade deficit widened dramatically in January, but it said the details of the report were a little less negative than the headline suggested.
Deutsche Bank said it thinks it is highly unlikely the European Central Bank changes policy at next Thursday's meeting. The market focus will be on what the ECB communications imply about the path forward, wrote the bank in a note to clients.
Trade activity had a "chilly" start to 2026, noted TD Bank on Thursday, but it said much of the weakness came through the auto sector as prolonged seasonal production stoppages "muddied" both the export and import numbers and the bank expects some improvement as conditions normalize over the next couple of months.
US stocks look set to open lower in Thursday's trading session as investors closely monitor the Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices, while jobless claims came in lower than expected.
The Canadian international trade deficit widened "dramatically" in January, but the details of the report were "a little less negative", said CIBC after Thursday's release of the data. The $3.65 billion deficit compared with the consensus expectation for a $1.1 billion shortfall, and the prior month's deficit of $1.3 billion, noted the bank.
Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world widened to $3.6 billion in January from $1.3 billion in December, as merchandise exports decreased 4.7% month over month, while imports were down 1.1%, said the country's statistical agency on Thursday. January's deficit was more than three times the $1.10 billion consensus figure provided by MUFG.
The US international trade deficit narrowed to $54.46 billion in January from a $72.9 billion gap in December, compared with a $66.0 billion gap expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:30 am ET. Exports increased in the month, led by large gains for industrial supplies and capital goods that offset a decline in exports of consumer goods.
January housing starts rose by 7.2% from the previous month to a 1.487 million annual rate, above expectations compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:25 am ET for a 1.341 million rate after an increase to a 1.387 million pace in December. Building permits fell by 5.4% to a 1.376 million rate in January, below the 1.410 million rate expected and following a gain to a 1.455 million rate in December.
US initial jobless claims fell to a level of 213,000 in the week ended March 7 from an upwardly revised 214,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for an increase to 215,000 in survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week moving average declined by 4,000 to 212,000 after falling by 4,500 to a level of 216,000 in the previous week.
G Mining Ventures (GMINF) reported Thursday a 221% year-on-year increase in gold reserves for year-end 2025. The company said its proven and probable reserves totaled 6.52 million ounces at an average grade of 1.60 grams per tonne gold as of Dec. 31, 2025.
US stock futures were tracking lower in Thursday's premarket session as the Middle East conflict sends oil prices soaring, while investors look ahead to key employment data coming out later in the morning.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.
Log In Required
Publication Date