National Bank noted the highlight of the week ahead will be the release of Consumer Price Index data for March on Monday. Another key event will be the release of the retail sales report for February, next Friday. National Bank will also keep an eye on the release of the March Industrial Product Price Index on Thursday and the Bank of Canada's first-quarter Business Outlook Survey on Monday.
According to Avery Shenfeld, nobody will be surprised to see headline CPI "take a big jump" in March on increases in gasoline. Shenfeld said retail sales next Friday should show a "hefty" gain in February. CIBC also awaits the release Monday of both the Q1 Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectation.
A quarter-long closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz will likely push US inflation higher by 0.6 percentage points this year, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in an article Friday. Energy prices have surged in the aftermath of the US-Israel war with Iran that spread across the Middle East.
The total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts for all areas in Canada decreased 6% in March at 235,852 units compared with February's 250,961 units, said the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. on Friday. The March figure was lower than the 258,000 estimate provided by MUFG.
Deutsche Bank (DB) has notified Germany's central bank Bundesbank that it may have violated sanctions that limit deposits of Russian individuals to less than 100,000 euros, multiple media outlets reported Friday. A Deutsche Bank (DB) compliance group discovered the potential breach after Germany updated its legislation earlier in the year to implement the EU sanctions.
The March existing home sales report brought "more grim news" for Ontario homeowners, particularly in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area, where the price correction has now entered a fifth year, said Bank of Montreal in an overnight note. One reason is the "massive overhang" of unsold new condos, which stood 40% above the long-run average as of Q4 2025, noted the bank.
Canada will release housing starts for March at 8:15 a.m. ET on Friday, notes Bank of Montreal. It said housing starts are expected to increase 1.6% month over month in March, to 255,000 annualized, slightly below the 261,000 average of the past year.
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down Thursday for only the second time in twelve sessions on some profit taking, but also on lingering concerns around what impact the war on Iran will have on markets, as National Bank revised down its global growth forecast for 2026.
US industrial production saw a surprise decrease in March, Federal Reserve data showed, though Oxford Economics said it's too soon to blame the Middle East conflict for the drop. Industrial output fell 0.5% last month following an upwardly revised 0.7% growth in February, the Fed said Thursday.
The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 20 points at midday, with most sectors in the green. Telecoms and info tech the best performers, up 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively. In Canada, the focus was on the release of existing home sales data for March.
The Bank of Canada has signaled a willingness to look through the energy-driven pick-up in headline inflation, said UBS. However, the key thing the BoC will be watching will be the breadth of inflation pressures, which could widen a touch in the March print, but should remain similar to that seen in recent months and in line with the pre-pandemic period, wrote the bank in a note to clients.
Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US fell more than expected, while continuing claims surpassed Wall Street's estimates, government data showed Thursday. For the week through April 11, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims decreased by 11,000 to 207,000 from the previous week's average that was adjusted downward by 1,000, the Department of Labor said.
UBS projects a headline Canadian consumer price index increase of 1.1% on a non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in March, which is the largest monthly increase since March 2022.
US initial jobless claims fell to a level of 207,000 in the week ended April 11 from a downwardly revised 218,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for a smaller decrease to 213,000 in survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET. The four-week moving average rose by 500 to 209,750 after increasing by 1,250 to a level of 209,250 in the previous week.
The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Thursday, except for a decline versus the yen, ahead of the release of weekly jobless claims data, the New York Federal Reserve's services index for April, and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing reading for April, all at 8:30 am ET.
Most Federal Reserve districts saw growth in economic activity since early March despite hostilities in the Middle East, the US central bank said in its latest Beige Book released Wednesday.
US economic activity was up in most of the Federal Reserve Districts since the last Beige Book report, but there was weakness in some regions and energy price gains were widespread, the Federal Reserve's most recent update released Wednesday showed.
The Bank of Canada delivered a dovish hold at its March policy meeting, said Morgan Stanley. The January Monetary Policy Report laid out a range of scenarios for the CUSMA trade deal renegotiation, framing it as the key risk for the Canadian economy going forward.
The International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook arrives in a period when a rapidly changing geopolitical backdrop makes economic and fiscal projecting, already difficult in the most 'normal' of times, even more challenging, said National Bank of Canada.
The Canadian government on Tuesday announced to expect a spring fiscal update on April 28 and a gasoline tax cut decision that offers minimal effects, said Scotiabank. The fuel cut will knock about 0.1% off the month-over-month April consumer price index when prorated and probably another 0.1 off May when the full month is affected, noted the bank.
Prince Edward Island recorded resilient economic growth in 2025, as real gross domestic product advanced by a greater amount than the national average, but slower GDP inflation brought nominal figures in line with Canada's nominal rate of 4.3%, said National Bank of Canada.
Societe Generale in its early Wednesday economic news summary pointed out: -- Brent consolidates around US$95/barrel, bond yields steady near weekly lows after "benign" United States producer price index. -- ECB President Lagarde: eurozone economy between baseline and adverse scenario, not severe. -- Day ahead: U.S. import and export prices.
US equity indexes closed higher on Tuesday as optimism over the resumption of US-Iran peace talks sent crude oil prices lower. * Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday. * The US Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% in March, the same as in February and below the 1.1% gain expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey.
The International Monetary Fund lowered its global economic growth expectations for 2026 due to the Middle East conflict, cautioning that a prolonged war could drive a further slowdown. The IMF said Tuesday that it now projects real gross domestic product for the world to grow by 3.1% in 2026, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast in January.
US producer prices growth steadied in March as wholesale costs of energy surged amid volatility stemming from the Iran war. The producer price index increased 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, unchanged from February's tally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
Bank of Canada looks "a bit" overpriced for rate hikes, given a tepid Canadian economy, said Deutsche Bank. Despite Canada being a huge net energy exporter, the Canadian dollar has underperformed, consistent with the bank's bearish CAD view. MT Newswires does not provide investment advice.
The International Monetary Fund Tuesday trimmed its 2026 forecast for Canada's gross domestic product growth by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, while keeping the estimate at 1.9% for next year. The IMF published its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. Canada's GDP expanded 1.7% in 2025.
The International Monetary Fund revised its estimate for 2026 global growth lower in its World Economic Outlook update released on Tuesday, with most regions seeing downward adjustments that are directly related to the conflict in Iran. World output is now expected to rise by 3.1% in 2026 after a 3.4% gain in 2025, a downward adjustment from a 3.3% gain for 2026 in the January version of the WEO.
The US Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% in March, the same as in February and below the 1.1% gain expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:45 am ET. Energy prices jumped by 8.5% in the month after a 2.1% gain in the previous month due to a 15.7% surge in gasoline prices, while food prices fell by 0.3% from a 2.4% gain in February.
US equity futures were trending higher on Tuesday amid media reports that the US and Iran may revive their peace talks, while investors await the latest financial results of some of Wall Street's largest banks and data on wholesale prices. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% and the Nasdaq added 0.4% in premarket activity.
The Federal Reserve will now likely deliver just one interest rate cut this year instead of two amid the oil price shock from the Middle East conflict, though the risks for the next rate reduction skew toward earlier rather than later, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Monday.
US existing home sales decreased in March as softening job growth and weaker consumer confidence continued to deter potential buyers, data from the National Association of Realtors showed Monday. Sales fell 3.6% sequentially to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units last month.
The March Labour Force Survey confirms that Canada's economic situation remains "fragile in the currently highly uncertain economic climate, given trade tensions with the United States and, now, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which, if it becomes deadlocked, could plunge the global economy into a downturn, said National Bank of Canada.
Canadian employment fell by 95,000 in Q1, the weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic, although following an even larger gain in Q4 2025, said Bank of Montreal. The big picture is that job growth has been very mellow over the past year, and the jobless rate is down a tick, noted the bank, after Friday's Labour Force Survey.
Canada's Labor Force Survey for March suggested a slight improvement in hiring, with employment up 14,000 after two months of declines in January and February, said UBS after Friday's LFS. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%. The bank expects that the unemployment rate could push higher through the summer, but then trend a little lower to 6.6% by year-end.
Investors will get an update on the state of the Canadian residential sector with the release of March housing starts on Friday, said National Bank of Canada. Judging by the data on building permits, the latter could have increased to 260,000 in annualized terms, led by the multi-unit segment, noted the bank.
The pace of US existing home sales fell by 3.6% to a 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in March from 4.13 million in February, compared with a smaller decrease expected to a 4.05 million rate in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:30 am ET, data from the National Association of Realtors released Monday showed. Total sales were down 1% from a year earlier.
The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Monday ahead of the release of existing home sales data for March at 10:00 am ET and an appearance by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran at 6:20 pm ET. Tuesday's highlights include data on small business sentiment and producer prices.
The consumer price index jumped by 0.9% in March, with energy prices up 10.9% on a record high 21.2% jump in gasoline prices, accounting for almost 75% of the overall price increase. Consumer prices were up 0.2% excluding food and energy prices, below expectations, with food prices flat.
The National Association of Realtors' measure of US existing-home sales is expected to slow to a 4.08 million annual rate in March, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, after rising by 1.7% to a 4.09 million rate in February. Existing-home sales were at a 4.02 million rate in March 2025, so the year-over-year change would be positive.
National Bank notes we'll get an update on the state of the residential sector with the release of March Housing Starts next Friday. National Bank notes we will on Thursday also get Existing Home Sales numbers. In other news, National Bank says Manufacturing Sales data on Wednesday may have expanded 3.8% m/m in February, on increases in the food and transportation equipment subsectors.
Gold futures eased midafternoon on Friday even as the dollar weakened after a report showed U.S. inflation surged in March on higher gasoline prices, cutting hopes for a cut to interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Gold for May delivery was last seen down US$28.50 to US$4,789.50 per ounce.
In Canada, CIBC says, the release Wednesday of both Manufacturing and Wholesale data for February should confirm the sharp rebounds already signaled by the advance estimates. However, CIBC adds, housing starts figures for March on Friday are likely to show building activity still. tracking a lower level than the 2025 average.
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