Markets Ignore the As Expected Merchandise Trade Surplus in Canada, Says CIBC

12:20 PM EDT, 06/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- A further gain in Canadian exports brought a wider trade surplus in April, even after a pullback in gold trade took some of the shine off, CIBC said Tuesday.

The further gain in export volumes at the start of Q2, following a solid rise in March, will mean that net trade should be a positive for quarterly GDP and support a rebound in economic activity following two marginal contractions.

The Canadian merchandise trade surplus of $2.72 billion in April was wider than the $1.75 billion in the prior month but broadly in line with consensus expectations of $2.55 billion, said CIBC.

Markets were unchanged by Tuesday's data, which was largely in line with consensus expectations, noted the bank.

Recent trade data suggest that Canadian exports have largely recovered to pre-2025 levels, although still with some weakness in sectors hit hardest by United States tariffs. However, with tariff uncertainty remaining as CUSMA renegotiations drag on, further upward momentum will likely be limited in the near-term.

While net trade will likely be a solid contributor to Q2 gross domestic product, it may not continue into the second half of the year if trade uncertainty persists, added CIBC.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.