Trade Contributions to Canada's GDP Likely to Remain "Choppy" This Year, Says TD

11:04 AM EDT, 06/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's trade balance moved into a $2.7 billion surplus in April, widening from $1.8 billion the prior month, said TD after Tuesday's data.

Exports in April rose by 1.6% month over month, following sturdy gains over the last two months. Higher oil prices pushed energy exports up 9.7% month over month, led by crude oil, noted the bank.

With improving export volumes in April, Q2 trade data point to a reversal in trade dynamics, suggesting net trade is poised to shift from a material drag in Q1 to a modest tailwind in Q2, stated TD.

That said, with flows still heavily influenced by volatile components, such as oil, gold and autos, trade contributions are likely to remain "choppy" and through the remainder of the year, according to the bank.

The July CUSMA trade deal review deadline is fast approaching, but a timely renewal looks unlikely as negotiations have yet to gain steam, added TD. Importantly, missing the deadline doesn't imply a collapse of the agreement: CUSMA remains in force and would shift into rolling annual reviews, raising the specter of prolonged negotiations and ongoing trade uncertainty.

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