Canada's Widening Merchandise Trade Surplus Helps Reduce Recession Chatter, Says BMO

09:36 AM EDT, 06/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened to $2.7 billion in April from $1.8 billion in the prior month, said Bank of Montreal (BMO) after Tuesday's data.

That marks back-to-back months in surplus, with April's reading the largest since the start of 2025, noted the bank. The spike in oil prices is doing the heavy lifting here.

Exports rose 1.6% month over month in April after popping more than 10% in the prior month, on the back of higher energy prices. Energy exports, after surging 23% month over month in March, rose a further 9.7% in April, but that increase was partly offset by a sharp pullback in metals -- mainly gold -- exports after a few months of outsized strength.

Meantime, imports rose a modest 0.3% month over month in April as broad gains across a number of categories were offset by a pullback in metals -- mainly gold, again.

By region, exports to the United States grew for a third consecutive month, while those outside the U.S. pared recent gains, though this mostly reflects price swings -- for example, a pullback in the value of gold exports to the United Kingdom.

In volume terms, exports edged up 0.2% month over month in April with solid gains across most categories offset by a slide in metals. Import volumes dipped 0.1%, which leaves a second straight monthly improvement in the real trade balance.

Another improvement in net export volumes leaves trade on track to add to real gross domestic product growth in Q2 after a deep carve in Q1, added the bank.

That would help quiet some of the recession chatter if it holds, along with the solid early read on April GDP, according to BMO.

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