BMO Focuses on Canada's Jobless Rate, Youth Unemployment Rate

08:07 AM EDT, 06/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- After the Canadian economy was officially declared not yet to be in recession, the May Labour Force Survey (LFS) hammered home the point, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The labor market has been a source of weakness for the economy, partly due to extreme swings in the post-pandemic population growth, noted the bank.

The unemployment rate has been hovering in the high-6% range for most of the past two years: reflecting some slack, but not as high as BMO would expect in a typical recession.

The May improvement -- down three tenths to 6.6% -- still doesn't change that story, stated the bank.

In the months to come, BMO advises watching the youth jobless rate: it slid almost a percentage point from April, but is still double the national rate. This is the demographic that's been the most exposed to the swings in labor supply, so Canada should see further improvement ahead.

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