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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 07:58 AM EDT

07:58 AM EDT, 06/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada is slated to release its international merchandise trade data for April at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank notes that the trade balance is "ground zero" for the impact of the dual tariff and energy price shocks on the economy. For April, BMO expects the surplus to clock in at $2.0 billion, little changed from the previous month.

Oil prices took another step up in the second month of the Iran war, while natural gas prices nudged lower. Meantime, a solid manufacturing flash -- even after accounting for higher prices -- points to firmer imports and non-energy exports.

A softer Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) raises the value of US dollar-denominated imports and exports.

Looking ahead, higher energy prices will continue to buoy the surplus, but weaker non-energy demand and ongoing tariff uncertainty remain significant headwinds, stated BMO.

The US dollar (USD) is weaker (BBDXY -0.25%), with the loonie stronger (CAD per USD -0.15%) early Tuesday, according to the bank.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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