There's "No Boom, No Bust" in Canada's Jobs, Says BMO

06:15 AM EDT, 06/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Forgive Canadian economy-watchers, as they are collectively suffering from an acute case of indicator whiplash in the past 10 days, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

First, they fielded a wave of enquiries on whether Canada was suddenly engulfed in recession, following the surprise Q1 dip in gross domestic product, noted the bank. Then, just a week later, the May jobs data printed one of the largest non-COVID gains in full-time employment on record.

Clearly, the reality is somewhere in between these two extremes, stated BMO.

Perhaps the best way to capture the 'true' underlying story is to look at the year-over-year change in total hours worked, according to the bank. Even with a bounce last month, they

are still up only 0.3% year over year. Meanwhile, for monthly GDP, it's now up 0.8% y/y, based on April's flash result.

Those yearly results look through the sometimes wild swings in monthly data and both make a lot of sense -- consistent with an economy that is just barely grinding forward, pointed out BMO.

The yearly trend in jobs and hours -- barely above zero -- is soft, and as such, there's definitely no boom, but it is simply not in the league of weakness of prior recessions, added the bank.

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