Bitcoin Bull Arthur Hayes Predicts 'Volatility Supercycle'

BY Benzinga | ECONOMIC | 09/28/24 07:56 AM EDT

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, highlighted the contrast between the vibrant crypto community and traditional finance while predicting a "volatility supercycle" in his latest essay.

What Happened: Hayes admitted that his short-term predictions are often inaccurate, but the overarching thesis of central bank intervention remains valid.

“As long as my portfolio is geared to benefit if printed fiat is supplied to suppress the natural volatility of human civilization, it doesn’t matter if I get every single event-driven prediction wrong as long as the policy response is as expected,” he states.

Hayes argues that global elites have been suppressing economic volatility through monetary policy, requiring ever-increasing amounts of money printing.

Looking ahead, Hayes predicts major economies will continue easing monetary conditions to suppress volatility. He expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates to near zero, regardless of economic indicators. Similarly, he anticipates monetary easing in the European Union, China, and Japan.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full">Benzinga Future of Digital Assets conference</figure>

Also Read: Oops! Arthur Hayes Realizes $790,000 Loss On This Ethereum-Based Altcoin

Why It Matters: For crypto investors, Hayes suggests that this environment will be beneficial. He advises, "If you are fully invested in crypto, sit back, relax, and watch the fiat value of your portfolio pump. If you have extra filthy fiat, left curve this bitch and deploy into crypto."

Hayes concluded by emphasizing the potential risks, including the possibility of a system reset if volatility can no longer be suppressed. However, he maintains that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and crypto will serve as "release valves" for the excess fiat currency, potentially outperforming other assets even in a downturn.

Lookonchain data spotted that Hayes withdrew 24.39 billion Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE), worth $252,680 from Binance. According to Hayes, "it's time for a meme coin breakout."

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Image: Shutterstock

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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