Speculative short positions in two-year, 10-year Treasuries fall

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 05/17/24 05:03 PM EDT
       By David Randall
       NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) - Bearish bets on two-year and
10-year Treasuries fell in the week that ended May 14 as yields
continued to retreat from the highs they reached in April.
    Net short positions on two-year Treasury futures fell to
964,986 contracts in the week from 1,022,233 the
week before, according to the CFTC's latest Commitments of Traders
data.
    Net short bets on the benchmark 10-year note futures fell to
347,811 contracts from 481,620, data showed.
    The declining number of short positions, which stand to
benefit if yields rise, came as futures markets reassessed the
number of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this
year. Markets are now pricing in cuts of approximately 44 basis
points by the end of December, up from less than 25 basis points
in cuts seen in April.
    The Federal Reserve has said that it needs to see more
evidence that inflation is falling before it cuts rates.
    Net short bets on five-year note futures grew to 1,326,105
contracts from 1,163,849.
    Net long bets on U.S. 20-year bonds rose to 4,287 contracts
compared with a net short position of 24,669.
    U.S. 30-year T-bonds short bets rose to a net 331,153
contracts from 316,115, data showed.

Below is a table of the speculative positions in Treasury futures
on the Chicago Board of Trade in the latest week:
U.S. 2-year T-notes (Contracts of $200,000)
               14 May 2024 week                         Prior week
 Long          541,411                     516,333
 Short         1,506,397                   1,538,566
 Net           -964,986                    -1,022,233

U.S. 5-year T-notes (Contracts of $100,000)
                 14 May 2024 week                       Prior week
 Long           469,333                 483,030
 Short          1,795,438               1,646,879
 Net            -1,326,105              -1,163,849

U.S. 10-year T-notes (Contracts of $100,000)
                14 May 2024 week                       Prior week
 Long           522,351                 455,924
 Short          870,162                 937,544
 Net            -347,811                -481,620

U.S. T-bonds (Contracts of $100,000)
                 14 May 2024 week                       Prior week
 Long            271,919                 267,918
 Short           267,632                 292,587
 Net             4,287                   -24,669

U.S. 30-year T-bonds (Contracts of $100,000)
                  14 May 2024 week                      Prior week
 Long             147,454                 147,986
 Short            478,607                 464,101
 Net              -331,153                -316,115

Fed funds (Contracts of $1,000,000)
                  14 May 2024 week                      Prior week
 Long             329,136                 356,452
 Short            233,212                 219,487
 Net              95,924                  136,965



 (Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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