By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, May 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell for a
third straight session on Friday, as investors remained
concerned about growing signs of an economic slowdown even as
the Federal Reserve vowed to stay aggressive with monetary
tightening to stamp out persistently high inflation.
"Concerns over slowing growth are taking hold with more
analysts warning of not just stagflation, but recession," said
Kim Rupert, managing director, fixed income at Action Economics
in San Francisco.
"The hits to margins that have been seen in Target, Walmart,
and the like, due to rising costs of labor, materials, energy,
and transportation are seen as potential harbingers of the
worrisome future ahead," she added.
Fed funds futures were firmer, suggesting that the U.S. rate
market has pulled back a bit from some of its more extreme rate
hike estimates on the view that the Federal Reserve may have to
scale back on its tightening plan, involving multiple 50
basis-point increases, as the economy slows down.
The rates market on Friday had priced in a fed funds rate of
2.783% at the end of next year, compared with the current level
of 0.83%. That was as high as 2.9% two weeks ago.
BofA Securities, in its latest research note, said there had
been a "market sea change in rate views" over the last two
weeks. It reaffirmed its call last month of going long duration
when the 10-year yield was between 2.8%-2.85%.
The U.S. bank cited several factors such as yields having
overshot fundamentals, Fed pricing looking full, growth and
inflation easing and signs of an economic slowdown in surveys.
In mid-morning trading, the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield
slipped 2.2 basis points to 2.833%.
The 30-year yield fell as well, dipping 2.4 bps to 3.041%
.
On the front end of the curve, U.S. two-year yields were
little changed at 2.613%.
The yield curve flattened again on Friday, with the spread
between U.S. two- and 10-year yields narrowing to 21.2 bps
. It has flattened in the four of the last five
sessions.
"The curve flattening dynamic should persist until the Fed
pivots dovish driven by early signs of softening employment & a
higher unemployment rate," BoFA wrote in its note.
May 20 Friday 10:26 AM New York/1426 GMT
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
(bps)
Three-month bills 1.03 1.0469 0.000
Six-month bills 1.465 1.4962 -0.006
Two-year note 99-201/256 2.6139 0.003
Three-year note 99-242/256 2.7691 -0.008
Five-year note 99-156/256 2.8351 -0.014
Seven-year note 100-32/256 2.8548 -0.022
10-year note 100-104/256 2.8279 -0.027
20-year bond 100-100/256 3.2232 -0.029
30-year bond 96-196/256 3.0402 -0.025
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net
Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 27.75 -1.75
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 12.75 -1.50
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 3.00 -0.25
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap 6.00 -0.25
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -27.00 -0.50
spread
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Alison
Williams)