Brazil govt to revise -4.7% GDP forecast for this year in early Nov

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/22/20 10:46 AM EDT

By Jamie McGeever

BRASILIA, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Brazil's government will revise its 2020 gross domestic product forecast, currently a contraction of 4.7%, early next month, special secretary at the economy ministry Waldery Rodrigues said on Thursday.

Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said earlier this week that he now expects the economy to shrink by 4% this year. The latest figures show that retail sales, manufacturing, industrial production and international trade are all rebounding strongly.

The latest average forecast in a weekly survey of economists carried out by the central bank is for a 5% fall in GDP this year.

In an online debate hosted by Brazil's federal audit court, Rodrigues also said Brazil's gross public debt is on course to peak at 97.9% of GDP in 2026 and end the decade at 94.5% of GDP.

That would still be higher than the 93.9% of GDP forecast for this year, despite the government's pledge to rein in the deficit from next year onward, stabilize the debt, and get it on a sustainable downward path.

Brazil's public debt last year was 75.8% of GDP, but it has ballooned to record levels this year due to the emergency spending measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

In his presentation, Rodrigues said Brazil's net public debt will peak at 84.7% of GDP in 2028, sharply higher than this year's expected 67.8% of GDP. Last year, before the pandemic, it stood at 55.7% of GDP. (Reporting by Jamie McGeever and Marcela Ayres in Brasilia Editing by Matthew Lewis)

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